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The HC Commodities Podcast

Paul Chapman, HC Group

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For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global Each day, around the world, we have fascinating one-on-one conversations with our connections in the commodities sector. Our collaborators are uniquely informed, creative and inspirational in their fields. We want to provide our community a seat alongside us, listening in to these conversations in that special way podcasting provides as we tack ...
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show series
 
Weather is a key driver in energy markets – from trading in the day ahead markets to weather events that can disrupt operations for months on end. Accurate forecasting has always been an edge. New technologies are making some aspects of forecasting ever more accurate. At the same time, climate change is making extreme events more frequent and signi…
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In the wake of the energy crisis and the demands of the energy transition, the EU has enacted a series of regulations, and considering more, in the European energy markets. These will bring changes to how power, carbon and gas markets operate and some proposals under consideration could have profound effects. What are these changes? What is the imp…
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Metals have had an interesting year so far. Prices have been volatile along with sentiment and narratives. Trading Houses have been rapidly expanding metals trading teams and funds have piled in. In this episode, David Wilson, Senior Commodities Desk Strategist at BNP Paribas Markets 360, takes an in depth look at the reality behind these trends ac…
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May you live in interesting times - as the proverb goes. Will those times continue? On October 16th, at the Yale Club in New York City, we held our latest Live Event hosted by ITFA with additional sponsorship from Brown Brothers Harriman, The Mercury Group, Goba Capital and HC Group. The commodities sector has seen unprecedented volatility. What ha…
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In mid -November, in Azerbaijan at COP29, momentous decisions could be made that would advance the carbon markets globally. What are they and what are the chances of that happening and what is the state of the carbon market today? Our guest is Nick Marshall, co -founder of TASC, a project developer focused on channeling funds into carbon reduction …
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Commodities sit at the heart of global trade and as such are at the center of the rise of protectionism. After a long period of globalization and ever freer trade, there is a perceptible and growing shift back to mercantilism and protectionism. This is driven by great-power competition with the energy transition being a key driver. Tariffs, sanctio…
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Utility scale batteries are proliferating across Western power grids, particularly in the US. And far more are set to come. These batteries offer the ability to manage grids, especially with the influx of renewables, or make economic returns on trading around them. Yet, their very presence is changing the dynamics of power markets. What are these b…
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Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered an avalanche of economics sanctions by the West. What followed was an undeniably world-changing financial experiment that risked throwing the world into a devastating recession, testing the very limits of economic warfare and Western cohesion. Commodities sit at the heart of this st…
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Over the next two years, the US is set to export some 12bcf/d extra of LNG. What does this mean for the US market? Where will it go? And can supply keep up? Will there be sufficient demand in Europe? And what does this mean for traders - is a global footprint now a must? Are the gas markets entering a new truly globalized era where US supply sets t…
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Shale Oil & Gas has turned the US into an energy power house over the last 15 years. Will it disappear as quickly as it arrived or will it set to US apart for years to come? Within its short life, it has evolved quickly and our guest Matthew Bernstein now characterizes it as Shale 4.0. What were the previous iterations in participants, economics an…
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A commodity close to many of our hearts, but how does it end up in our mugs? Where is it grown, how is it processed and who trades it? How do the derivative contracts work and what might the future hold as climate, geopolitics and consumer tastes evolve? Our guest is Charlie Stephens, President of Amarella Café, an independent specialty coffee trad…
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Is the commodities world lagging behind in AI adoption? And if so, how should the sector’s leadership think about applications and use? What even is it and how is it being used by other sectors? Our guest is Seth Dobrin, CEO of QuantmA1, an AI consultancy and General Partner at 1Infinity Ventures, a VC fund. Seth was former Global Chief AI Officer …
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As we head toward the end of the year and into 2025 where are oil prices headed? In this episode we recap the major events and decisions since COVID and the key drivers of oil prices. Then we turn to the outlook for the next two years. What is the supply and demand picture? What could OPEC’s upcoming decision mean – could a new price war start? And…
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Brazil has been steadily deregulating its power market over the last two decades. This combined with one of the largest share of renewables in the generation mix of any advanced economy, alongside hydrocarbon production in the ‘Pre-salt’ off the coast, has made it a hugely dynamic market with lots of opportunity for participants, both domestic and …
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Are we seeing a regime change in Europeangas and power markets? Is Europe now entering a period of structurally lower energy prices and economic advantage as its decades long investment in renewables starts to pay off? Will other countries have to go through this journey? What does this mean for power trading opportunities? As we approach winter, i…
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The UN predicts global population will peak sometime in 2080s around 10 billion people. Companies, countries (think global social security schemes) and the commodities sector predicates forecasts on these assumptions. Yet, there is a growing body of evidence that these assumptions are far too optimistic and that not only will global population peak…
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Global regulators are narrowing their focus on the commodities sector and billions of dollars have been paid in fines. The world has become both more transparent and more risky in the wake of deglobalization, sanctions and the energy transition bringing its increased public scrutiny. The risks are enormous both the companies and individuals. And as…
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show. Jonathan’s new book - Commodity Professionals: The people behind the trade – is a collection of interviews spanning all the professions that create the commodity supply chains. How have these roles evolved in a more volatile world? How are the trading houses fairing since we last caught up with Jonathan? For more on HC Group visit: www.hcgrou…
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The energy transition is complex. That complexity tends to be papered over with simplifications and beliefs, even myths, both within the sector and the broader public on both sides of the debate. Yet, to make the right investments and decisions as companies and societies, it requires careful analysis and ultimately managing the inherent trade-offs.…
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Is the commodity super cycle, long heralded, a mirage? Or, super charged by a capex cycle, are we just at the start? What is the state of the commodity investment cycle? Why and how has geopolitics and dollar weaponization changed the landscape? If there is a global run up in prices will energy keep pace with metals? What does all this mean for the…
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Data is the new the economic engine of the world. Globally, data centers are proliferating bringing their huge demand for energy – especially clean energy delivered reliably. Markets, policy and regulation are still adapting, often too slowly, to the changing energy mix and decarbonization demand. Could data centers be the engines of change to brin…
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In this episode we explore commodities’ role in asset management and portfolio construction? Why should asset managers and investors seek exposure to commodities within their portfolios? What are their historical long-term performance as part of a broader mix of equities and debt? Indeed, are institutional investors currently underweighted, especia…
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Hedging is the basic tool of the commodity trader. Yet, outside that community it is little taught, little understood and underutilized – especially as raw material prices are becoming more volatile in an age of disruption. What is hedging? What are the costs and benefits and why is it not more exploited up and down the value chain. Our guest is Sa…
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In commodities, the lowest cost producer or shipper is king.This in turn drives siting assets, determined by human factors such as cost, legal and tax regimes and geographic factors like proximity to rivers, coasts, production and markets. However, today the world is becoming more volatile both in weather events and in policy. And in fact locations…
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In this episode, our guest argues that not only is the energy transition happening, it’s happening faster and more profoundly that you can imagine…and it’s being led by China. The ‘age of renewables’ will be very different than the ‘age of carbon’ and the same forecasting assumptions do not apply. The energy transition is being driven by technology…
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In a deglobalizing and volatile world, sanctions can upend commodity markets overnight. Commodities underpin global trade and are often themselves direct targets of sanctions or swept up in restrictions imposed on trade infrastructure, such as finance and shipping. In this episode, we do a deep dive on the suite of Russian sanctions imposed since t…
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In this episode, we are diving into the Japanese power market, which by virtue of its size, generation mix and recent liberalization, is fast becoming one of the most active power markets in the world, attracting a host of domestic and international energy merchants. What is the regulation that underpins the market? How does it function and who are…
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Western Governments have enacted a slew of policies to support energy security and its transition to a greener future. These policies can radically shift the economic landscape for the commodity sector participants. However, the reality of implementing these policies, from the power lines needed to the mines for critical metals, requires navigating…
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In this episode, to celebrate 200 episodes and a name change, our host Paul Chapman reflects on the podcast, its goals and development and the back catalogue. A body of work, still highly relevant, that has traced the trends, participants and individual commodities (some old and some new), through one of the most interesting periods in the sector’s…
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Trade finance is the lifeblood of the commodity sector. Liquidity shrank throughout the last decade in the wake of regulatory changes. Now deglobalization and sanctions, environmental pressures and volatility threaten this key resource. How have the banks responded and what of alternative providers? What does this mean for commodity traders and the…
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In this episode, we do a deep dive into the dry freight market and how bulk commodities are shipped around the world and by whom. As the commodities markets themselves become more efficient, freight markets are starting to represent one of the biggest sources of risk and opportunity available to traders and charterers. This, in turn, is driving con…
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In this episode, Ariel Perez, Head of Environmental Products at Hartree Partners, returns to update us on the state of the carbon markets over the last two years in a more inflationary and unstable world? Global commodity leaders are calling for a price for carbon – are we any closer? How have compliance markets fared in the energy crisis and Russi…
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The US Dollar has been the world’s global reserve currency since the Second World War, underpinning global trade and US dominance. However, as our guest argues, its use as a global policy tool such as in sanctions, increasing geopolitical competition and political instability at home is threatening its status. Various countries and blocs are attemp…
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In this episode we address that very special commodity Uranium, crucial to the energy and defense industry alike. Nuclear’s role is the energy transition is increasingly recognized. But where will the needed Uranium come from in a more fragmented world? How is Uranium mined, processed and delivered to the nuclear energy plants. Where is it produced…
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In this episode, Ilia Bouchouev joins to discuss his new book, ‘Virtual Barrels: Quantitative Trading in the Oil Markets”. What are virtual barrels? How has oil trading been fundamentally changed due to them? What has that meant for flat price, participants and trading strategies? The book is a comprehensive exploration of quantitative trading in t…
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At the core of commodity trading is forecasting. The last decade of low prices and low volatility has transformed into a market of high volatility and higher prices. How has that changed the nature of forecasting? What does it mean for tools, models and skillsets. And are markets still forecastable? Our guest is Matteo Mazzoni, Director of Energy A…
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On Tuesday 27th February, HC Group and bp hosted a breakfast and networking event for women in the trading and origination community. The highlight of the morning was a thought-provoking panel discussion featuring industry leaders Carol Howle, EVP Trading & Shipping at bp and Alice Acuña, EVP Trading at CEPSA. Moderated by Laura Berger, Portfolio D…
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Hydrocarbons have been a key driver of geopolitics and globalization over the past century. Even in the past decade, we have seen how US shale production and China’s energy security policies have dramatically changed the world. Now, peak demand and the energy transition is set to upend decades of global policy and economics – with a huge impact on …
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Why is it crucial to the energy transition that critical minerals that underpin it develop traded markets? What will it take to get there? And what are the challenges that this future faces - from uncertain policies, to supply chains and geopolitics? On February 22, in London, Benchmark Minerals Intelligence hosted the HC Insider Podcast in front o…
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Sand has transformed modern civilization. It is the ubiquitous commodity; in our infrastructure, in our industry and even in our personal care products. Yet due to its characteristics, the supply chain is fragmented, disastrous for our environment and often corrupt. And by a tragic quirk of geometry, desert sand is unusable meaning we wreck our riv…
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CEO of Edge Petrol, Gideon Carroll joins Enco to discuss the UK's Pumpwatch Scheme proposed by the government. What is in it? And what will the impact be on consumers, fuel retailers and wholesalers? For more on Edge Petrol visit https://www.edgepetrol.com/ For more on Enco Insights visit www.encoinsights.com…
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In this episode, we return to critical metals and how their fortunes are affected by the energy transition, technology and geopolitics. To tell that story we are focusing on three in particular: Neodymium, Gallium & Hafnium. Each has a key role in the modern world with demand set to grow but with challenges markets and policy makers are grappling w…
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The energy transition requires the mobilization of vast amounts of capital. It affords huge opportunity but also risks. The technological pathways, policy support and geopolitics are uncertain and volatile. How can these risks be managed? And opportunities be captured? In this episode, we go into the world of private equity and the thinking and str…
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Information has always been the lifeblood of commodities trading. Today, the sources of data that provides the information and insight have grown exponentially - as has its value. So much so that companies are viewing data as a strategic asset, transforming how they value, collect, manage, and protect it. And once that mindset is in place, it can b…
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In this episode, Doomberg joins us to discuss their most recent analysis and controversial views of the oil and commodities markets. Why Peak Oil is unlikely to happen and oil will remain cheap and abundant. How US oil production has changed the energy map and the in turn its role in global security – a gap which China is planning to fill. And how …
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