Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)

Louis-Vincent Gave is the Founding Partner and CEO of GaveKal, one of the world's leading independent providers of macro research, and GaveKal Capital, a manager of $2.7 billion in assets. Louis launched GaveKal alongside his father in 2000 and has become a go-to source for creative research on global economics and asset allocation, particularly in China. He recently penned CYA as a Guiding Principle, dissecting the consequences of Western government responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He joined me to discuss the key takeaways. Our conversation starts with Louis’ background and founding of GaveKal, and turns to the potential second order impacts of freezing reserves, seizing oligarch assets, end of Swiss neutrality, energy prices, and military spending. We close discussing how the situation may affect China. Learn More‍ Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn ‍ Subscribe to the mailing list ‍ Access Transcript with Premium Membership…

Marko Papic is the Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, where he provides research on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. Marko recently published Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future, an imminently readable book with colorful examples of political analysis. Marko’s approach is akin to Moneyball for politics, challenging the orthodoxy of how others traditionally make investment decisions. Our conversation covers Marko’s upbringing, the flaws of most political analysis, and his constraints-based framework. We then turn to the obvious political topic at hand – next week’s U.S. Presidential election. We discuss his views of different possible outcomes on the U.S. equity market, rates, tech stocks, China, private equity, ESG, Europe, and emerging markets. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership…

Australian James Aitken is the Founder and Managing Partner of Aitken Advisors, a one-man macroeconomic consultancy based in Wimbledon, England that works with approximately one hundred of the most influential pools of capital in the world. James started his career in 1992 as a foreign exchange trader, moved to London in May 1999, and in March 2002 joined the infamous AIG Financial Products team in London. In August 2006 he joined UBS, where he deployed his knowledge of the inner workings of the financial system to help his institutional investor clients successfully navigate their portfolios through 2007 and 2008. At the urging of his clients, James established his own firm in June 2009. Our conversation covers James' perspective on the Global Financial Crisis from his seat at its epicenter, the Eurozone crisis in 2011, subsequent process-driven opportunities in Greece, views on Central Banks in the US, China, & Europe, some brief observations on India, positioning for the current environment, and what makes a great macro manager. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership…

Howard Marks is a renowned investment thinker and the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, a leading global investment firm overseeing $200 billion primarily in credit investments that is majority owned by Brookfield Asset Management. Our conversation covers Howard's journey from his early days in finance to his current insights on the evolving credit landscape. We dive into themes from his latest Memo, Gimme Credit, exploring the pendulum swings in investor sentiment, the rise of private credit, and implications for investors. We also discuss the changing dynamics of private equity, the trend of asset manager M&A, and life as a public company. Throughout our conversation, Howard shares his timeless wisdom on risk management, market cycles, and the enduring principles of successful investing. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership…

This WTT – PE Investing in 2030 - takes a look at the playbook for investing in private equity and how the current period of liquidity challenges might impact allocations going forward. Allocators will need to fine-tune their core investment beliefs to answer the many questions this environment has raised. Read Ted’s blog here .…

Meghan Reynolds is Partner and Head of Capital Formation & Talent at Altimeter Capital, a leading technology-focused investment firm founded by Brad Gerstner. Meghan joined Brad three years ago, after decade-long stints at Goldman Sachs and TPG. She’s like the private equity version of my friend and partner Rahul Moodgal, bringing a keen understanding of LPs and a relationship-focused approach to her role. Our conversation covers Meghan’s experience building and maintaining great LP relationships over twenty-five years at both large and smaller firms. She discusses the role of capital formation, approach to serving clients, process of seeking prospects, and parallels between venture capital today and private equity a decade ago. We close with a discussion of what Meghan is hearing from LPs. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership…

We are excited to launch our latest initiative - Capital Allocators Coaching . We’ve brought together a team of retired CIOs and asset management executives to coach managers on telling their story. Learn more and schedule a consultation here .

Ed Grefenstette is the CIO of The Dietrich Foundation, which supports charitable organizations in Western Pennsylvania through a truly unique investment strategy that seeks to first, last, and always grow the assets. Bill Dietrich, a successful industrialist, published historian, international investor, and innovative philanthropist, formed the foundation after selling his business for $170 million in 1997. Since then, the pool has grown 11.5x to $1.5 billion after distributing $400 million to supported charities, including contributions that make it among the largest donors every year to Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Pittsburgh. Over the last twenty years, the Dietrich Foundation's performance sits at the very top of all endowments and foundations. Our conversation covers Ed's journey to investing and mentorship by Bill Dietrich, which led to him taking the helm at the Foundation in 2007. We discuss the Foundation's bold approach to illiquid investments, with 90% of assets invested in venture capital and private equity, its governance structure, and its thematic focus on innovation and emerging markets. Along the way, Ed shares insights into managing liquidity, constructing the portfolio, selecting managers, and navigating geopolitical risk to maintain conviction in an uncomfortably different strategy. Ed’s approach and results will open your aperture to what’s possible in an institutional portfolio with the right goals, structure, and governance in place. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership…

Alex Sacerdote is the founder of Whale Rock Capital Management, a technology-focused investment firm that manages $8 billion across hedge fund, long only, and hybrid strategies. Our conversation covers Alex’s path to running Whale Rock, shaped by early exposure to the markets through his father, a longtime partner at Goldman Sachs, and his formative years at Fidelity. We dive into the key lessons he learned at Fidelity, the development of his investment framework centered around S-curves, competitive advantages, and underappreciated earnings power, and the application of the framework to AI, Mag 7, cloud computing, electronic vehicles, and blockchain technologies. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership…

Shannon O’Leary is the CIO of the St Paul & Minnesota Foundation, where she oversees $1.8 billion for the community foundation that aspires to create an equitable, just, and vibrant Minnesota. Shannon took the post six years ago after twenty years working with families. She describes herself as ‘blunt,’ comfortably speaking her mind, including in her LinkedIn newsletter entitled ‘Say It Out Loud’. Our conversation covers Shannon’s relationship-driven approach to investing across families, Boards, team members, and managers. We discuss the value of frank communication in every aspect of the investment process, from setting policy to manager access, research, selection, and partnership. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership…

David Zorub is the Founder and CIO of Parsifal Capital Management, a $1.5 billion hedge fund that invests in a concentrated portfolio of longs and shorts across geographies, sectors, and capital structures. David joined me on the show a few months before he launched Parsifal six years ago to discuss his plans. We got back together to talk about what’s happened since. Our conversation covers the headwinds facing fundamental investing, Parsifal’s approach to counter those challenges, and the investment and business processes that led the firm to reach this point. Along the way, David shares keen insights into research, portfolio construction, and partner relationships that have combined to take Parsifal from a start-up hedge fund to a thriving organization in a difficult environment to do so. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership…

David Zorub is the founder of Parsifal Capital, a new hedge fund he is launching later this year. Before founding Parsifal, Dave spent fifteen years in research and portfolio management at hedge funds and another few in investment banking and private equity. I interviewed David recently at Columbia University’s Student Investment Management Conference and that conversation follows. We cover his career path and his insights into the philosophy and structure of a hedge fund business and investment portfolio. It’s not easy starting a hedge fund these days, and those eager to try will get a sense of the challenges ahead by listening to an experienced investor who’s making a go of it. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership…

Brett Barth and Evan Roth are co-founders and Co-CEOs of BBR Partners, a multi-family office that oversees $32 billion on behalf of 180 families and is celebrating its 25th anniversary this year. Brett appeared on episode 3 of Capital Allocators eight years ago and is a regular contributor in our Friends Reunion shows. I’ve observed BBR’s growth since first meeting Brett and Evan twenty-four years ago and was excited to hear more about their journey. Our conversation covers BBR’s successes, missteps, and key lessons over the years. We discuss their investment philosophy and cultural principles, the “turbulent regimes” that cemented their approach with clients, and their shift in mindset from scrappy entrepreneurs to managers of an enduring business. Evan and Brett describe the business and investment decisions that allowed BBR to sustain success, create peace of mind for clients, and prepare for the next long chapter in BBR’s story. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership…

Brett Barth is a founder and the CIO of BBR Partners. BBR manages north of $12.5B on behalf of 125 families in its multi-family office. In this episode, we start talking about raising twins, a family issue close to both of our hearts. From there we learn about how Brett came to form BBR. We spend a lot of time going into depth on his firm’s asset allocation process and on the decision-making process of manager selection. Along the way we touch on inefficiencies in Asia in the early days and in music royalties today. Brett offers nuggets of practical substance for allocators of all types – from financial advisors to large institutional managers. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership…