McAlvany Weekly Commentary podcast

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31:01

National Geographic photographer and conservationist Jaime Rojo has spent decades capturing the beauty and fragility of the monarch butterfly. Their epic migration is one of nature’s most breathtaking spectacles, but their survival is under threat. In this episode, Jaime shares how his passion for photography and conservation led him to document the monarchs’ journey. He and host Brian Lowery discuss the deeper story behind his award-winning images, one about resilience, connection, and the urgent need to protect our natural world. See Jaime's story on the monarch butterflies at his website: rojovisuals.com , and follow Brian Lowery at knowwhatyousee.com .…

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WEEKLY MONETARY, ECONOMIC, GEOPOLITICAL NEWS AND EVENTS

257 episoade

McAlvany Weekly Commentary explicit

updated acum 2 zile

Distribuie

Pagina seriei•Feed

WEEKLY MONETARY, ECONOMIC, GEOPOLITICAL NEWS AND EVENTS

257 episoade

#Trading #Business #McAlvany Weekly Commentary

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Markets Face Pullback 21:17

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Gold was down slightly week over week. Silver dropped 3% over the past week, while platinum was flat and palladium dropped over 7%. Bitcoin took a massive hit following a major hack. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on February 26: The price of gold is down 0.6% at $2,918 from a week earlier. The price of silver is down 3% sitting firmly at $31.80, still looking pretty strong after a big move up. Platinum is down 1.8% at $966. Palladium is down 7.25% in the last week to $921. Looking over at the broader markets… The S&P 500 is down about 3% to 5,950 from a week earlier. The US dollar is at $106.50, declining about 0.4% from a week earlier. Bitcoin is down 13% in the last week, after some North Korean hackers got into one of the crypto exchanges. Bullish Gold As we discussed before the election, we expected the price of gold to dip if a Republican president came into office. And as predicted, gold did decline once Trump sealed his victory. The difference is that gold’s dip was pretty insignificant if you compare it to other presidential elections. In Trump’s previous 2016 victory, gold bottomed out around 12-13% lower in February and March. For this election, gold only fell about 7% and it hit the bottom in December. Looking at the short-term move, gold was around $2590 in mid-December 2024. Now that we’re at the end of February, the price of gold has jumped up all the way to a high of $2,955. That’s an almost 50% rise over the last 12 months. Could there be a buying opportunity in the near future? With gold on this meteoric rise, there is still a chance that it will have a Fibonacci correction level — which would mean a potential $100 decline. But these buying opportunities have become more rare recently with the bullishness in the gold market. Silver Buy Opportunity Silver has been strong over the last several months, with a strong stair-step pattern up when you look at its price chart. Looking at the short term, silver has already taken about a 50% retracement in price. You're Silver’s bull market started around the end of December where the price was around $29.16. It has since run up to $33.40 taking a little interim step back down. Silver is still extremely undervalued, and investing in it while the price is down opens future opportunities for ratio trades. Especially when it comes to stacking ounce of gold over time, silver can create that opportunity with a smaller investment in silver ounces that can eventually be exchange for gold ounces. Seize Opportunity Still waiting on the sidelines for the right time to buy precious metals? The best time to buy metals was 20 years ago — but the second best time is today. Your McAlvany Advisor can help you determine your best strategy for adding ounces of gold and other precious metals to your portfolio. With decades of experience as investors themselves, they are happy to speak with you about your personal investment goals and get you started the right way. Just give the team a call at (800) 525-9556 to get a complimentary portfolio review.…

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The WWII Monetary Order Is Over 1:05:15

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Bill King On Russia, Iran, China, & Bretton Woods III Should Trump Expect The Reagan Double Dip Recession? DOGE Attacks The Grift & Skim Government “The gold is an okay inflation hedge. It's an enormous political hedge, and that's what's going on. China, especially Europe. Europe is in deep, deep trouble. Now the good news is that Trump might force them to do the major restructuring that they need to do, just like some company that's going down and all of a sudden, the vultures of private equity start taking positions and you start saying, 'That's it. We got a position there, and guess what? If you don't cut all this stuff out, we're just pulling your funding and then you're going to go to zero.' That's what Trump's giving to Europe, reform or guess what? You're going to go to zero." —Bill King Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, I'm really looking forward to this interview. We talk to Bill King at least once a year, maybe twice a year. I was talking to a client just before we stepped into the studio. This guy is pretty sharp. He works at a lab that works on nuclear fusion. He listens to the Commentary every week, and I said, we're going to go interview Bill King right now. And he goes, "Oh, I love Bill King." He says, "Now, I do have to listen two or three times, but I love Bill King." David: A lot to unpack for sure, every time. The perspective that is sort of from macro to micro, taking the 30,000-foot view and then getting right into the trenches, daily market activity. No better guest, I don't think, that we've had in the 18, 19 years we've been doing this. * * * Bill King, always great to have you on the program. I feel like we're in touch daily as we read the King Report without fail daily. In fact, my oldest son is a bit of a news junkie and he too has enjoyed the King Report as he's gotten older, freshman in college now and probably better read than most his age, and I have you to thank for that. So let's start with some contextual issues, and then drive towards specific market and asset class considerations. Really big things changing, potentially the re-engineering of the global trade system on the table. Tariffs are part of that, maybe change tax policy internationally factoring in. Expand for us what it means to be at the intersection of significant trade policy shifts, political re-engineering here in the US, and a morphing of geopolitical commitments. Bill: You know, these are changes that probably are more profound than even when Reagan came in, and probably more profound than the Republican Revolution in 1994 when they took the House for first time since with the '50s. Since then, they've had the House more than the Democrats, when you go back all those years between the '50s and whatever, thirty-some years, the Republicans seldom had the house. So some very profound changes. And the big one, of course, is Trump is trying to dismantle the administrative state, the deep state. And this is something all the way back to Reagan people talked about, but it hasn't happened because of entrenched interests in the United States Congress and in the executive branch and even the judiciary, and it's happening so rapidly. And then of course, the same thing is you're getting Europe. Europe had the changes with Soviet Union went down '91. The wall went down, what, '89 and then you saw that they brought in the euro, the EU, all this stuff is unwinding. And then even China, China's having all kinds of issues now. They have so much debt, they're straining to get their economy going. There's all kind of hints of political unrest and Xi's trying to hold on. So we don't quite know. I mean, the one thing the Fed is right, is they're saying, "We had to wait because we don't know how this is going to play out." Well, they're looking at the tariffs, but there's things far bigger than tariffs going on.…

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Gold Demand Shakes Markets 28:02

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Gold and silver rose up this week, while platinum slid off a new high and palladium remained flat. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on February 19: The price of gold is up 0.6% at $2,935. However, gold was as high as around $2,947 this past week, so we did see gold put in a new all time high. The price of silver is up 1.4% on the week at $32.77. Silver got as high as about $33.40 this past week. So silver had a pretty strong week out doing gold by a little bit and bringing that ratio back under 90, currently sitting at around 89 to one. Platinum is down 6.3%, but we did start our week last Thursday at the October high of $1,053, so Platinum had a pretty strong week last week ending on Thursday at a multiple month high. Palladium is flat at $990. But it did go as high as $1,035 during the week and at one point was up about 5%. So there’s some consistent movement up in both platinum and palladium. Looking at the broader markets… The S&P 500 is up 1.3% to 6,143, putting in a new all time high. It has a beautiful stair-step chart. The US dollar is down about 0.5%, sitting at $107.01, confirming the downtrend in the purchasing power of the US dollar right now. Given what's going on in the precious metals market this week, we need to talk a little bit about supply and demand. Gold Leasing in Demand There’s a renewed interest in gold leases among large institutional investors. Here’s how gold leasing typically works: Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) will lease gold for a period of time depending upon the money that's flowing into their exchange traded funds. Market makers such as big corporate dealers will borrow gold for a year to capitalize their operation. Less than three months ago, institutions could borrow gold for close to 0% interest per year, and borrow several tons of gold at less than 0.5% - 1% per year cheaper than getting a bank loan. But now, gold lease rates are anywhere from 3% — or perhaps at 2% if you just borrow it for six months. More money is flowing into gold ETFs from Europe and Asia. But you can’t say the same about US investors. Americans Still Betting on Crypto Americans see it differently — their money is skipping the ETFs and going into cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin. With the new administration shaking things up, and with DOGE uncovering corruption, US investors are feeling more confident. So instead of putting their money in a real and tangible store of value like gold, they are willing to bet big on the uncertain cryptocurrencies. The only problem? The American public still hasn't caught on to the fact that the price of gold is going to go so much higher. The smartest wealth builders are quietly adding more gold ounces — serving as the insurance portion that will protect their purchasing power from being eroded by inflation. And the way the US government has been running up debt, inflation is inevitable. Add Gold Ounces Today Call us at (800) 525-9556 so we can speak with you individually and walk through your own portfolio. Our team of experts can help you understand the whys and the hows with acquiring gold.…

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Rising Gold Still Waiting For Western Investor 36:55

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Median Age Of Renter Is Now 42, Up From 33 Trump Will Get A Victory Lap If He Cuts Middle Class Taxes Strong, Long-Term Holding Gold Buyers Dominate Market "I think Trump gets his victory lap if he can aid middle-class taxpayers with cuts, social security becoming tax-free, the extending of cuts already in place. These things would be very helpful to the middle class, and potentially offset a significant portion of the next inflationary increase. But asset classes remain very vulnerable to a second thrust higher from inflation. So the difference between the middle class worrying about income and how far their money goes versus what their balance sheet looks like, I think that's where the balance sheet is particularly vulnerable. From a valuation perspective, the stock market today is set to deliver the worst returns on record over the next decade." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, if I look back, my wife and I, when we first got married we were quite young. I mean I was 20 when we got married, and we initially bought our first place with a little bit of help from our parents as far as the down payment goes. And what we've tried to do is we've tried to progressively own a little larger place—up to the point that the house we've been in now we've been in almost 30 years, and we'll probably at this point have to start downsizing—but that was the idea. All of the people that I knew, that's what you did. You built, you built, you built, and then you downsized. And what that did was that opened up the opportunity of possibly having a nest egg when it comes time for retirement. It feels like that's changing. David: Yeah. A mortgage allows you to over time build that nest egg through almost like a four savings program. Yes, there's the debt that's associated with it, but as you retain some equity, assuming that the value of the house is stable or moves higher, it's pretty remarkable. Zillow reported last week, the median age of a renter is now 42 years old— Kevin: Wow. David: —up from 33 years old just three years ago. Kevin: That is incredible. So renting in your 40s, that seems to be the new way. David: Shocking to me, but not surprising given the affordability of housing. So confirming an affordability crisis in real estate, the Zillow stats suggest we are creating a generation that is far less likely to see the net worth bump and liquidity bump in retirement years from converting home equity into a larger retirement nest egg, kind of topping it off and then converting it to an income-producing asset. Maybe it's bonds, maybe it's mutual funds, maybe it's something else. That is typical in investors' life cycle. Buy, gradually pay off the mortgage. If real estate values have increased, you have an appreciated asset that is larger than you need as your family matures and moves out, allowing you to convert the home equity into a retirement nest egg additive. Kevin: It just goes to show we've heard people say, "Well, someday you'll own nothing and you'll be happy about it," but we're seeing that trend right now. I mean with where people live or even music, Dave. In the old days you would download something, you'd have a CD or you'd download it and you'd pay for it and you'd have it. Now every time you try to listen to something, I was trying to listen to Beethoven's 6th Symphony the other day. I own it. I know it's somewhere on the iPod or it's on the iPhone, but they just wanted to sell me a subscription. They don't want me to own anything. David: That's right. Kevin: They just want me to renew and rent everything. David: Yeah, rent the song. Kevin: Everything. David: Well, the ramp up in real estate prices has been beneficial to current owners, but it's locked out a generation from home ownership, and it's creating over time a greater reliance on Social Security,…

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Gold Hits New All-Time Highs | Market Insights & Inflation Concerns 20:04

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Gold and platinum continue to march higher, while silver and palladium buck the overall trend. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on February 12: The price of gold is up 1.25% to around $2904 — not a huge change week over week. However, gold did reach a high of $2942 midweek, which marks a new all time high. The price of silver is down 0.2% on the week, sitting at $32.22 — just about flat. However, silver had a swing from the intraday high to low of about 5%. Platinum is up, 2.2% or $1,033, showing some strength this week. Palladium continues its slide down 3% to $985. And if you look at the high right at the end of January, palladium is down 9% in the month of February. Looking at the broader market… The S&P 500 is down about 0.4% or 6,053. However, it seems to be in a sideways pause. At least as of right now for the last couple of weeks, the equities market is trading sideways. The dollar is up about 0.16% to $108 from our recording last week — seeing some strength in the US dollar. Dr. Copper’s Check Up With the price of gold up and the price of silver basically flat, the gold-to-silver ratio hit 92.2 as of recording. That is the highest it has been since August 2022, and the fourth highest gold silver ratio ever. How do we see silver moving with the ratio widening? That’s when we look at what copper is doing. As we have discussed before, the metal carries the moniker "Dr. Copper" because it is an indicator that reflects the health of the economy. As we saw in a recent January episode, copper continues to show strength — which means the economy is growing. Copper is back near all-time highs. As of this recording, it is around $4.70, which is right at the top of its trading range. And it’s likely that it could break through to $5. If it does, we expect that the price of silver will also rise, and narrow the gold-to-silver ratio again. DOGE to Audit BLS We’ve talked before about how statistical reports seem to paint a more rosy picture of the outlook of the economy. For example, everybody knows that inflation is way under-reported compared to what it actually costs to put food on the table and gas in the car. Now, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is going to audit the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While it’s impossible to know exactly what will happen, it’s possible we’ll see major changes in past reports on everything from non-farm payrolls to GDP and CPI. The inflation rate will likely be significantly higher than what has been reported in the past. Because the policymakers in Washington use all of the figures in the economic reports to allocate funding, whatever DOGE uncovers in their reports could lead to a massive overhaul in governmental spending. Worldwide Demand for Gold Meanwhile, the gold price continues to climb higher with strong demand worldwide. Global gold ETF holdings bounced up 3,253 tons to a total assets under management of US $294 billion. Now it's a matter of who will control the physical aspect of of gold. Will it be the East or the West? Is it going to be the LBMA or the Comex and NYMEX? One thing’s for certain, US investors have a distinct advantage right now with premiums on real, physical gold at very low prices — so this is the time to start adding ounces to your portfolio. Plan Your Metals Strategy How many ounces of gold and other precious metals should you add to your portfolio? The McAlvany advisor team is here to help guide you. With decades of experience in precious metals investing, they are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556…

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A Weaker Dollar Is On Trump’s Agenda 34:08

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Gold Price In Dollars To Rise China Approves Gold Now In Its Insurance Company Portfolios Russian Consumer Demand For Gold Up 60% Since Ukraine Invasion "A weaker dollar is on the agenda, and this is a decided shift to force the dollar lower on a managed basis, ultimately will require a multilateral currency agreement that takes the dollar lower relative to its global peers. We'll have to have participation from other central banks as we orchestrate that. The Plaza Accord accomplished this in 1985, and a version of that is a growing likelihood." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, it was a quick trip, but I have to say aloha. Welcome back. David: The halfway point between the Philippines and Durango, Colorado is Honolulu—Waikiki. Kevin: Honolulu with a— Didn't you say you got a convertible and you just drove all around the island up to the North Shore? David: Oh, got a great deal, and took my parents all over the place. Yes, we're going to talk about gold. Kevin: Yeah. David: Yeah. New all-time highs warrant a conversation. It's trading over 2,900 this week. My call on Bloomberg Television a month back for 3,250 in 2025 seems a little less far-fetched. Kevin: It feels sort of daring when you do it and now you can look at it and go, "Okay, 3,250." We're very, very close to that, but let's go back to the trip. You have been out of the office now for the last week. Is there perspective that comes when you step away from the chaos? David: Definitely. A few days out of the office, a few days with my parents brings perspective. I'm grateful for our annual meetups, and I hope we have a lot more of them. I treasure each one of them. Kevin: I love the fact that you guys are so deliberate year after year after year. Think back, Dave. Think back to some of the great trips that you've had with your parents. David: Oh, well, one that stands out, I remember a trip to Manhattan with my parents to celebrate what was our first anniversary and their 30th. We were living in Boston at the time, so New York was a short stretch away. Now I'm approaching, still have five years, a 30th anniversary of my own. Life happens that fast. You blink, and decades have passed. I think we're confronted with inescapable moments of self-reflection, and sometimes those are at big life events. Think of your family, weddings, funerals. You get together and it's reflecting back and you see how much has changed in the time that's passed in between. Outside of the best man's toast and the epitaph—between them, I should say—there's a blur of days and years and decades. I think some of us with a melancholy streak or sentimental soft spot reflect a little more often and don't need those big days for inspiration. Most days, frankly, are strung together in sort of an undifferentiated stream like frames in a film reel. Kevin: I just got off the phone with a client before we stepped into the studio. These folks own a ranch up in Oregon—or farm, actually—and they just had a new lamb that was born right before we talked. She had to run out the door to chase off predators actually, but they had been accumulating precious metals for years. They listen to the Commentary. I got to know them more than a decade ago, but they said, "Kevin, I just want you to know as we go through this triangle update, is what we call it, we are really thinking about our grandkids at this point." He said, "A lot of people think about their kids for inheritance. We're already on grandkids." And I said, "Well, Dave calls that legacy. Legacy investing. It's a legacy mindset." There's a lot of things to count other than money, right? I mean, we value a lot of things. David: Sure. I mean, we're in the investment business. We're constantly toggling between present value and future value. We assign resources for a positive outcome in the future,…

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Market Volatility Continues 22:11

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Gold and precious metals saw more volatility over the last week, but overall strong in the beginning of this new year. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on February 5: The price of gold is up 3.6% to $2,862. However, gold did break above $2,900 in the futures market. The price of silver rose up 4.8% to $32.32. This has inched the gold to silver ratio down a couple of points to 88 to 1. Platinum is up about 3% to $1,008, from a week earlier. Palladium up about 3.8% to $1,015, rising from a week earlier as of recording. Looking at the broader markets… The S&P 500 moved sideways, and was at 6,058 as of recording. The US dollar index was down about 0.25% to $107.06. But it did reach $110 before making a pretty significant crash back down. A Strong January for Metals Looking back at January performance, precious metals across the board showed strength in the first month of the year. Gold closed out the month up 6.5%, while silver outperformed gold with a rise of 8.6%. It gets none of the attention, but that's because gold's at all time highs. Platinum rose up 8.1% in January, while palladium led the charge overall, up 10.6% by the end of the month. As discussed in our January 24th show, the commitment of traders continues to bet long on gold. We believe that gold could reach a new record high of $3,000 before we see a decline. Bond Market Stabilizes Despite interest rates shifting down 18%, the bond market looks pretty stable. The short-term one-year and two-year bond yields are down around 20%. But looking at the 10-year bond yield, it has only declined 10%. So despite the massive interest rate rise through 2022 into 2023, tapering off in 2024 and down a little bit at the end of last year, the bond rates have stabilized. The bond market is far bigger than the equities market, and it’s encouraging to see money moving into 10 year Treasurys — an indication that big money is happy with the direction the US is going and perhaps even hedging risk in the equity world. Volatility in Cryptos Bitcoin still looks relatively healthy, but Ethereum had a 36% drop in a day. And while it took a significant bounce up, it did also have a significant decline over the last couple weeks and months in some of the alternative cryptos. So we're seeing rampant volatility in certain places right now. While some investors will continue to beat the drum for this gold alternative, cryptocurrencies still haven’t shown the stability of precious metals. Gold is still the original money — real, tangible, and the true hedge against inflation. Protect Your Money With Gold Gold is a powerful safe haven and insurance policy against economic and political uncertainty. Now is the time to reach out to a trusted McAlvany advisor for precious metals investing advice. They are happy to speak with you about your investment goals and strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556…

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Trump: Breaking Bad To Remake Good 35:41

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Radical Re-think On Dollar Boosts Gold's Future Read Doug Noland's Latest Credit Bubble Bulletin Read Morgan Lewis' Hard Asset Insights "If the US is to be the primary winner in the restructuring of the global system, it will come at the expense of our trade partners. Think about China and over a trillion dollars in Treasuries. Think about Japan. If that cycle has contributed to the hollowing out of our US manufacturing base, the course he's proposing is one that is decidedly dollar negative. So to boost the value of our trade partners' currencies, to devalue the dollar and rebuild our manufacturing base is a 180 from the conditions that have created our current system of trade and drive our import-export balances to the levels we have. Now, clearly we've got trade deficits on a gargantuan scale. I think we're on the cusp of a major monetary regime change." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick along with David McAlvany. Dave, there are times when the guys that we would go to say, "Hey, where is this going to end up?", like Doug Noland or Morgan Lewis or some of the people that help give us instruction. We go, "Okay, so Trump's doing this. Where is this going to end up?" When these guys themselves are saying, "Well, let's analyze it, but I have no idea." That's what it feels like right now, that nobody really knows. What does this look like as we recreate the entire financial and economic structure of America? David: Yeah, the idiom being caught off balance, I think has application because there's not an asset class that hasn't been sort of scratching their head, investors saying, "What exactly does this mean and what am I supposed to do about it?" So yes, there is a sense of being annoyed and disturbed and rattled, and we're seeing that show up in the form of volatility, for sure. Kevin: And that's why it would probably be a good idea for our listeners to go back, if they didn't hear the Tactical Short call with you and Doug last week. It's not only available in recorded form on our website, we'll go ahead and put that on the links, but it's transcripted as well if you'd rather read. David: Yeah. So if you don't want to spend two hours, I think— Last week Doug Noland and I recorded the Tac Short call. There is a brief version of it in the Credit Bubble Bulletin from the weekend. So if you weren't on the call, I insist you take 10 minutes to read this week's Credit Bubble Bulletin. If I told you your financial health depended on it, would you ignore that? And I do think your financial health depends on it. In the show notes, follow the link and just take 10 minutes, read the first part of the weekly Credit Bubble Bulletin. It's the weekly. We do a daily as well, which has the news feeds. So make sure and look for the weekly. Kevin: Well, and just to mention, you're just about to get on a plane, and I love it when you get a chance to go see your dad, I think he's going to be 85 in June, and your mom. But just for the listener's sake, we're recording this one day early, so anything that we say, there'll be a little bit of news events that come before the Wednesday publication of this show. David: Well, the last few weeks, every day there's been news items coming at us fast and furious. But yeah, you're right. My dad's 85 this year. Mom is a spry 78, but with a cancer recovery effort still in play there are even more reasons to be with them whenever possible. So if the events in the call today seem different by the time you're listening, I just wanted you have that context. Kevin: Well, and so let's start putting some things in context because over the last week, we talked about the DeepSeek shock. But we're seeing shocks in a lot of areas: cryptocurrencies, AI, DeepSeek, and honestly a lot of the ramifications from tariffs I'd like to just maybe talk about all of that today. David: Yeah. Last week was DeepSeek and a challenge to the AI narrative....…

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Markets in Motion 16:10

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Gold and precious metals were largely flat over the week, as broader markets gyrated on AI news from China and the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on January 29: Gold is flat at $2,755 from a week earlier. Gold did touch up into its all-time high territory for a moment, but it didn’t reach its record. Silver is sitting at $30.65 — dead even from a week earlier. Silver did have a mid-week dip down 3%, but recovered by the time of recording. Platinum is up 1.5% to $972 from a week earlier. Palladium is down 1.5%, also at $972 from a week earlier. Looking at movement in the broader markets… The S&P 500 is down about 0.5% to 6,040 this week. It did put in a new high as well as about a 2% decline at one point in the immediate reaction of the AI news coming out of China. The US dollar is also dead even at $108. For the first time in quite a while, the dollar did go below $107 for a short period. Dr. Copper Shows Strength in Economy Looking at a chart of copper prices over the past year, the metal has shown a strong pendant formation. And when we look back over the last four years, copper shows its in a rising trend line. The shiny metal is nicknamed "Dr. Copper" because it is an indicator that reflects the health of the economy. With copper’s price rising steadily, the economy is growing stronger. Trump Picks a Fed Fight Trump is blaming Powell and the Fed for high inflation, and he wants the Fed to reduce the target for interest rates. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve indicated that they would keep interest rates steady and noted the lack of progress toward their 2% inflation rate goal. Cutting rates would further stimulate the economy, increasing the inflation rate and making it harder for people to afford staples like groceries and gas. As we’ve discussed in past episodes, the way to attack inflation is to curb overspending by Congress — an unpopular solution that can kill a political career. One thing that will preserve your purchasing power no matter what move the Fed makes? Turning your dollar bills into gold ounces. Invest in Gold Today Our team of advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…

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Tactical Short 4th Quarter 2024 Recap 1:51:00

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Historic ‘24 Excess Portends Precarious 2025 MWM Q4 2024 Tactical Short Conference Call January 30, 2025 David: Good afternoon. This is David McAlvany. We'll go ahead and get started. This is our January 30th, 2025 Tactical Short conference call titled Historic 2024 Excess Portends Precarious 2025. Good afternoon. Thank you for participating in our fourth-quarter recap. As always, thank you to our valued account holders. We so greatly value our client relationships. With first-time listeners on today's call, we'll begin with some general information. And for those of you unfamiliar with Tactical Short, more detailed information is available at mcalvany.com/wealth/tactical-short/. If you'd like to explore next steps for opening a Tactical Short account or investigate how the service might complement your existing equity exposures, it's a good time to do so. The order of our call today will be my comments on performance followed by Doug's market commentary and then Q&A at the tail end. I have a number of questions already submitted. You may submit further questions to Ted via his email ted@mcalvany.com. And also, for inquiries on Tactical Short and its inclusion in your current strategies, you can also submit those inquiries to ted@mcavany.com. The objective of Tactical Short is to provide a professionally managed product that reduces the overall risk in a client's total investment portfolio, while at the same time providing downside protection in a global market backdrop with extraordinary uncertainty and extreme risk. The strategy is designed for separately managed accounts. It's investor friendly with full transparency, flexibility, reasonable fees, and no lockups. We have the flexibility to short stocks and ETFs and our plan has been to on occasion buy liquid listed put options. Shorting entails a unique set of risks we're set apart both by our analytical framework as well as our uncompromising focus on identifying and managing risk. Our Tactical Short strategy began the quarter with short exposure targeted at 80%. The target was held steady throughout the quarter, focused on the challenging backdrop for managing short exposure. The short in the S&P 500 ETF, SPY remains the default position for this high-risk environment. I'll give you an update on performance. Tactical Short accounts after fees returned negative 1.73 during Q4. The S&P 500 returned a positive 2.39. So for the quarter, Tactical Short accounts returned negative 72% of the S&P 500's positive return. As for one-year performance, Tactical Short after fees returned negative 15.32% versus the 25% return of the S&P, with Tactical Short losing 61.3% of the S&P 500's positive return. We regularly track Tactical Short performance versus three actively managed short-fund competitors. First, the Grizzly Short Fund, which returned a negative 1.64 during Q4, and over the past year Grizzly returned a negative 6.74. Ranger Equity Bear returned a negative 5.71 for the quarter, with a negative 7.97 for a one-year return. And Federated Prudent Bear returned a negative 0.68% during Q4 and a negative 12.32 for the one year. Tactical Short outperformed the actively managed bear funds for the quarter on average by 95 basis points. Tactical Short underperformed over the past year by an average 631 basis points. It has significantly outperformed, Tactical Short has, each of the bear funds since inception. From April 7th, 2017 inception through the end of the year, Tactical Short outperformed each of the three competitors by an average of 1,743 basis points or 17.43 percentage points. There are also the passive short index products. ProShares' short S&P 500 ETFs, which returned a negative 70 basis points for the quarter and a negative 13.51% for the past year. And the Rydex Inverse S&P 500 fund, which returned negative 0.53 in Q4, negative 13.08 for the one-year numbers. And then the PIMCO StocksPLUS Short Fund with a Q4 return of negative 15 b...…

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Will DeepSeek Be Deepshock To The Market? 28:20

acum 5 weeks28:20

28:20

NVIDIA Loses Over Half Trillion In One Day The World Needs Resources The Fed Can't Print DeepSink Is AI's Sputnik Moment "So earnings growth in the AI space, admittedly meteoric if not miraculous through the early quarters of 2024. Earnings growth slowed considerably in late 2024 and as we come into this year. And if the supply chain for AI is put under the microscope and found to be creating overcapacity, you've got an eerie echo from 1999 and 2000." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Before we start, Dave, let's go ahead and remind our listeners about the call with Doug Noland this week. David: Yeah, join Doug Noland and me on Thursday afternoon, 4:00 p.m. Eastern, 2:00 Mountain, for the Tactical Short. This is a Q4 recap conference call, “Historic ’24 Excess Portends Precarious 2025.” I announced this call three weeks ago, and the word "precarious” seemed out of place. The comment might not have made sense. Kevin: A little precarious now, though, huh? David: Yeah. Kevin: Yeah. David: Do market conditions seemed more precarious? I think so. Perceptions shift, and with them market pricing does as well. I highly recommend that you join us. If you are inadequately hedged, you can still remedy that. Get informed, register for the call, submit your questions ahead of time, and we'll do our best to address specific issues following the formal remarks. Short exposure has, as you might expect, been the inverse to the markets as they've been rising in recent years. You may not care about short exposure in a rising market without limits, but what about the limits? And what about a falling market? Are you adequately liquid? Do you have a form of financial insurance in place? We look forward to your presence on Thursday's call. Kevin: It's important to talk about hedges. I was thinking this week, Dave, when we saw DeepSeek come out. We can talk about that through the show, but I love South Pole history. I love Ernest Shackleton, or Robert Falcon Scott, or Roald Amundsen, and it reminded me of the story. You probably remember this, but in January of 1912, a very well-stocked team of 65, it started with 65 people. The last five to push to the South Pole for the English, it was Robert Falcon Scott, and four other guys. 65 people, hardware heavy. They had dogs, they had ponies, they had motors that they had to move, but there was a shock when they got there on January 17th, 1912. A Norwegian team had gotten there first. David: Almost a month earlier. Kevin: A month earlier, and they had 19 guys—19 in, 19 out. No one was lost. The Norwegians beat them. It was very light on the hardware. Scott was heavy on the hardware, and unfortunately the five that went in and came back out, all five were lost for the Scott team. So I'm wondering, Dave, if NVIDIA isn't a little bit like the Scott team right now, hardware heavy, and then you had DeepSeek this last week, come in and say, "Hey, you don't need that much hardware." David: Well, it's exactly right. You had a decline of $589 billion in a single day, and that marks the greatest concentrated single-company loss in financial history— Kevin: Wow. David: —in a 24-hour period. Kevin: Almost $600 billion lost. David: Forbes reports, "NVIDIA's nearly $600 billion market cap loss Monday is larger than the individual market values of all but 13 American companies. More than the market cap of titans like health insurer United Health, oil giant ExxonMobil, and retailer Costco. Kevin: Wow. David: And at issue, if Chinese company DeepSeek can do what the large language models do at a fraction of the cost with a fraction of the hardware, then you're looking at the AI supply chain in that Wile E. Coyote moment. Kevin: Wow. David: Gravity is in effect, and so the claim is that this more efficient open-source application was built for under $6 million, uses fewer than 10,…

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Gold Nears Record Highs 20:07

acum 5 weeks20:07

20:07

Gold and precious metals continue their march higher this week, buoyed by continued enthusiasm for the new US president and administration. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on January 23: The price of gold is up 2.5%, sitting at around $2,756. That’s only about $35 away from its previous all-time high. The price of silver is up around 0.9% at $30.85. Platinum is up 2.8%, to $960. Palladium is up 3.9% at $1000, just slightly below platinum. Looking at the broader market… The S&P 500 is up about 2% this week to 6,091. The US dollar is down a little over 1% at $108.22. Big Money Bets on Gold Rise The Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows the aggregate holdings of different participants in the U.S. futures market. These are compiled and published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the U.S. COT reports detail how many long, short, and spread positions make up the open interest. Looking at a recent report, we see that far more institutional investors have been betting long on gold futures. Their bets have paid off handsomely, as gold has recovered from its dip to rise back up to record levels. But will the managed money continue to speculate that gold will go up? Or will they start taking profits? Of course, it’s impossible to predict exactly how the price of gold will change. But here are a few scenarios to consider. Scenario 1: A Mild Selloff If there is an unwinding of those managed money speculative bets, it’s possible that we’ll see gold drop down closer to the lows seen in post-election November and December — potentially around the $2,500 per ounce range. If this happens, gold could trade sideways for a few months. Scenario 2: A Shallow Correction If instead there’s more of a correction, we might see gold in the intermediate term fall to a floor. A shallow correction would look like gold dropping to $2,350 per ounce. A deeper correction might be closer to where gold was during the post-pandemic highs, around $2,075. If silver decides to hold around its current level, that would open up a potential gold to silver ratio trade. That’s because the gold to silver ratio would be closer to 52:1 in this case. However, it looks less likely that this scenario would happen. Scenario 3: Untested Territory There’s a good possibility that a correction might not happen at all. And instead, gold would push up to new high levels into uncharted territory. If this happens, it’s possible that gold could climb to a new high around $3,500 per ounce. Looking at recent charting patterns, it is possible that gold could reach these new highs. Which means that investors waiting on the sidelines to catch the next dip would continue to miss out. Should you buy gold right now? The best way to know what would work for you is to consult a trusted, experienced precious metals professional. Get Started With Expert Advice Our advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…

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The Trump Sounds & Volatility Shall Follow 33:17

acum 6 weeks33:17

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Executive Orders Signal Immediate Change Mr. Bond Vigilante Still Has The Strongest Say Uncertainty The Best Driver To Gold "So returning to the executive orders, at the end of page 2, I was saying, "Wow." At the end of page 5, each page with at least 10 executive orders on it, it was awe-inspiring, ambitious in scope, sure to offend, and FDR and Reagan both came to mind. Massive change, very disruptive to the status quo. From a market perspective, I kept thinking disruption, uncertainty. These are things that drive market volatility." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, David, all I can describe is sensory overload. I think about punk rock concerts back in the 1970s through the mid '80s. You had the bright lights, the strobes, you had the loud music, you had all these different things going on, which purposely are trying to create sensory overload. I wasn't really part of that movement, but I remember getting my pilot's license. And the guy who was checking me out was trying to do the same thing while I was flying a plane. Now, if I'm the markets right now, whether you're happy about Trump, whether you're not happy about Trump, but if I'm the markets, how in the world do I know what to do next? David: It's an amazing week. Normally on MLK day, I read a passage from MLK, Jr. and discuss it with my kids. Not this year. We've got the inauguration, the announcement of sweeping changes into the late hours of the evening. I was reading word for word the five pages of links to the new executive orders, redirecting the usual practice and had me a little bit distracted. So we've got the rescindment of 78 Biden-era executive actions. The second executive order stopped bureaucrats from issuing new regulations. The third mandated federal workers return to offices. Imagine that. Kevin: You got to go to work. David: I know. Kevin: You got to go to work. David: Ending government censorship, freezing hiring of the IRS agents, ending some birthright citizenships, signing pardons for 1,500 Jan. 6 prisoners, and then six commutations as a part of that. It goes on and on. Kevin: I told you, bright lights, strobe lights, sounds, it's all happening all at once. David: Yeah. Kevin: And it's presidential. I mean, these are executive orders, Dave. Nobody's voting on this. David: The one word I would apply to the markets going forward—reflecting on the knowns and the unknowns, the intended changes, and really the actual paths forward—is the word volatility. Kevin: Oh, sure. Well, what do you do when you have sensory overload? And again, there may be many really great long-term outcomes coming out of this, but what do you do in the meantime while things are shifting back and forth? David: I'm trying to replay in my mind Sid Vicious soundtracks, cassette tapes—because it would've been a cassette tape. The best way of describing the financial markets in the current context is like a vast casino. And again, you talk about sensory overload. Vegas has gotten a little bit better, even leaving the airport's not quite as loud as it used to be. But our current context is like a casino. You've got high stakes bets. They're rolling through constantly. You've got currency bets and fixed income bets and equity and option bets, cryptocurrency and commodity bets. And all of these bets are based on economic inputs. They're based on external factors which are deemed to tilt the odds in the favor of a certain outcome. Make no mistake, it is a casino and it's no longer clear to the currency players what those external factors are going to be. It's no longer clear to the fixed income players, the options traders, the commodity traders, and the equity operators just how those external factors are going to impact pricing. Kevin: Well, how about crypto? I mean, crypto just has one direction, doesn't it? David: Well,…

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Markets Hold Steady Amid Incoming Inauguration 18:37

acum 6 weeks18:37

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The markets are sitting with bated breath ahead of the inauguration of President Trump. However, precious metals continue to show strength. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of this recording, January 15: The price of gold is up 1.3%, sitting at around $2,695. The price of silver is up 1.8% at $30.66. It is now comfortably above the $30 mark. Platinum is down 3.3%, to $934. But in the middle of the week, it did hit a high that it hadn’t reached since November 2024. Platinum is stair-stepping up. Palladium is up 5.2%, a big move up the day of recording. at $924, just slightly below platinum. Looking at the broader market… The S&P 500 is up about 1.1% this week to 5,954. It is on an upswing of a downward movement, as it has been stair-stepping down. The US dollar is even this week, hovering around $109.20. But the dollar did have an intraweek high as it broke above $110. If we could look into a crystal ball and predict the future, the outlook right now is one of great optimism There’s a consistent pattern that we’re following according to our election market expectation show. The honeymoon is over, and the markets are settling back into reality — that is, back into the trends that they were in before the election. Economic Watch The CPI report for December indicated that inflation is still hot, rising up 2.9% over the year. The core CPI figure, tracking food and energy prices, rose 0.2%. The markets reacted with enthusiasm, hoping for an additional rate cut by the Fed. The DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ rose up around 2% on the news. Over the last few days, bond yields have been declining while prices continue to rise. Even though yields have declined, bonds appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of the inaugration. Gold to $3,000? For people holding gold, the fundamentals look good. We predict that we’ll be seeing gold peeking above $3,000 per ounce this spring. Gold rising up to $3,000 per ounce in 2025 is a conservative estimate, because that would be a 10% gain at its current price. If you look back over the last 50 years, you will see that gold has been gaining an average of 8.5% - 10% per year. Gold: Silver Ratio Trades As for an upcoming ratio trade between gold and silver, it will depend on whether the ratio widens or narrows to a favorable ratio. The price of silver dipped below $30 a bit earlier in the week. However, silver has bounced back strongly above $30. Silver still has a lot of upside potential, and it is undervalued right now. Industrial demand for silver continues to grow, especially with the development of new EV batteries that rely heavily on the white metal for their manufacturing. There’s also the potential for internal ratio trades — such as trading silver bars for junk silver or silver American eagles. Sometimes, the premiums on one product are significantly lower than for another product, and a trade will give you more ounces without paying for them. Get Started With Expert Advice Will there be a new ratio-trading opportunity coming up this year for you? The best way to know what your ideal next trade would look like is to speak with your McAlvany financial advisor. Our advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…

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Your Mission Critical Checklist For 2025 45:43

acum 7 weeks45:43