Top Traders Unplugged podcast

1:05:24

In today’s episode, Alan Dunne and I take a step back - and a step forward - by exploring 125 years of hard-earned market wisdom, courtesy of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, the definitive source of long-term asset class performance. What does this rich dataset tell us about equities, bonds, diversification, and the underrated role of patience in investing? And how relevant are these lessons for investors navigating today’s high-concentration markets, stubborn inflation, and the potential cracks in the classic 60/40 portfolio? But that’s not all - we also dive into one of the most overlooked challenges facing systematic trend followers today: capacity constraints, especially in commodities. Drawing on Quantica’s latest research, we examine why commodities have historically been critical to CTA performance, how liquidity limits silently erode returns as strategies scale, and why the explosive growth of trend following ETFs may come at a hidden cost investors rarely see. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter . Episode TimeStamps: 00:41 - What has caught our attention recently? 04:14 - A new era for Germany? 10:02 - The ETF space is on fire 11:21 - The Nordic countries are on a roll 12:18 - Dunne's global macro perspective 21:39 - Industry performance update 27:07 - An analysis of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 34:29 - Why are expected returns so far off real returns in the Pension Fund space? 41:07 - The cycle of returns 46:07 - When trend following hits capacity 53:56 - Why Niels is concerned about new replication products 58:52 - Can trading few markets actually provide more diversification than trading many markets? 01:03:40 - What is up for next week? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
TTU148: CTAs - The Good, The Bad, and The Misunderstood ft. Rob Carver, Graham Robertson and Yoav Git 1:09:36

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1:09:36

Today, we’re diving deep into the world of CTAs and their role in investment portfolios. We discuss the balance between focusing on a single asset class versus a multi-asset approach, emphasizing that different asset classes offer unique utilities to investors. Our guests share insights from their experiences, highlighting the importance of tailored execution strategies and how technology can enhance trading performance. We also explore the growing interest from major players like Fidelity and BlackRock in trend-following strategies, raising questions about the future of CTAs in institutional portfolios. Join us as we unpack these themes and share our thoughts on the evolving landscape of systematic trading. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter . Follow Graham on LinkedIn . Follow Yoav on LinkedIn . Find out more about DUNN Capital Episode Timestamps: 04:02 - Introduction to Yoav Git 06:16 - The background behind Graham, Rob and Yoav's relationship 12:15 - What is common about people working at Man AHL? 15:47 - Should you focus on single or multi asset classes? 24:58 - The state and outlook for fixed income and 29:47 - Liquidity and how it plays a role in alternative markets 36:09 - Are investors misunderstanding liquidity? 37:28 - How do you actually measure and think about liquidity? 39:50 - Why are CTAs not widely represented in portfolio? 49:14 - How to understand and master execution 58:01 - Research and technology in systematic trading 01:02:36 - "My love for you is like a magnitude 6 earthquake, your sharpe ratio makes me tremble in size" 01:05:00 - Are we at a turning point for trend following? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI339: CTAs vs ETFs: The Showdown That Could Change Everything ft. Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel 1:19:30

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1:19:30

Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel joins us to talk about the current state of global markets and the pivotal changes affecting our industry. We’re all feeling the shift in dynamics, and we’re here to unpack how that impacts our investing approaches. From the rise of new ETFs to the ongoing debate about the future of managed futures, we’ll cover it all. So grab your headphones and get ready for some straight talk on trends, volatility, and what it means for all of us as investors. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter . Follow Tom on LinkedIn . Episode TimeStamps: 00:47 - What has caught our attention recently? 06:11 - Industry performance update 14:30 - Wild moves in markets 16:55 - Trump dumps on Trump trade 26:23 - A wealth of products - is it just a phase? 35:16 - The developments in the CTA space 36:21 - Are we trying to engineer the impossible? 41:45 - The pros and cons of inflection points vs short term models 50:28 - Why do CTAs replicate the way they do? 57:36 - Are the new ETFs threatening the CTA franchise? 01:01:56 - Discussing performance in the CTA space 01:09:22 - The use of QIS strategies in trend following 01:13:52 - Final thoughts Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
ALO29: What Every Investor Should Know About Valuations ft. David Giroux 1:01:17

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1:01:17

Leveraged loans combined with treasuries create a solid strategy for navigating today’s fixed income market. These two asset classes work like a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, balancing each other out—leveraged loans shine when interest rates rise, while treasuries thrive when rates drop. In our chat today with David Giroux, portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, we dive into how this mix helps manage risk and enhance returns in uncertain market conditions. Giroux shares his insights on the current investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of evaluating management quality and capital allocation strategies. Join us as we unpack these ideas and explore what they mean for the future of investing. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter . Read more about David here . Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - Introduction to David Giroux and T. Rowe Price 09:00 - Are mostly sectors overvalued? 11:43 - What has driven the change in valuations? 13:48 - How Giroux determines how much risk to allocate in markets 18:19 - The outlook for equity returns and Giroux stance on AI 21:42 - The relationship between market meltdowns and interest rates 23:29 - Giroux's outlook for inflation 28:32 - How Giroux uses his past experience to predict markets 31:37 - How Giroux constructs stock portfolios 35:35 - Giroux's view on today's capital allocation 37:26 - Key advice for how to think about valuations 40:47 - What kind of investors are T. Rowe Price 44:50 - How the microstructure of the markets has changed over time and how it has impacted their investment strategy 50:03 - The cyclicality of markets the implications of it 53:34 - Do geographical funds even make sense? 54:40 - How AI impacts the investing world 57:56 - How would Giroux run a longer term portfolio? 58:56 - Advice for other investors Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI338: Politics, Markets & Power Plays: An Unfiltered Look ft. Cem Karsan 1:08:47

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1:08:47

Together with Cem Karsan, we take a serious look at how the shifting political landscape and economic pressures are impacting global markets. We discuss the implications of a potential (engineered) recession and what it means for various asset classes, especially in relation to current U.S. policies. With the conversation turning to Europe, we analyze the region's military rearmament and its potential effects on the global balance of power. We also touch on the evolving dynamics regarding Turkey's economic challenges and geopolitical significance. Buckle up for a straightforward discussion filled with insights and practical implications for investors navigating this complex landscape. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter . Episode TimeStamps: 01:03 - What has caught our attention recently? 05:40 - We are at a populism crossroads 07:09 - Industry performance update 09:02 - The current state and outlook for the global economy 21:03 - The absurdity of lowering yields to maintain a strong dollar 28:47 - The Mar-a-Lago accord - realistic or pure speculation? 35:42 - Are we seeing a new new world order? 42:20 - How the TSMC deal with the US will impact the conflict between Taiwan and China 50:28 - A perfect storm for the Turkish economy 57:20 - The importance of Turkey's position and military power 58:49 - Oil is in a weird spot at the moment 01:03:00 - Could extreme market drops cause policy changes? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
GM80: Doomsday Clock Ticks: Are We Close to a Monetary Shift? ft. Adam Rozencwajg 1:19:35

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1:19:35

Today Cem Karsan and I are diving into a pretty intense topic today: the looming potential for a monetary regime change that feels like it's right around the corner. We're talking to Adam Rozencwajg about how the shifts in global commodity dynamics, particularly in natural resources like oil and gas, are becoming a lot clearer as supply constraints tighten up. It's all about recognizing the signs, and we believe that the next six to nine months will be crucial for investors looking to ride this wave. We’re also throwing around some serious thoughts on how geopolitical factors are impacting these markets, especially regarding energy security. So grab a seat, because we're about to unpack why you should be paying attention to these developing trends and what they could mean for the future of commodities. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter . Follow Adam on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:32 - A big picture framework - what has changed since our last conversation? 09:32 - Why are commodities so cheap today? 17:03 - Why is now the moment to go long? 31:04 - We are in a huge carry trade 47:04 - Commodities are taking over another role 51:15 - Where are the greatest opportunities in rare metals? 58:40 - It will end badly for millennials 01:04:09 - Conspiracy theories in the gold industry 01:06:55 - The outlook for the U.S energy market 01:14:02 - Europe is in a difficult energy spot Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI337: How Best to "Replicate" Managed Futures Returns ft. Katy Kaminski 1:03:28

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1:03:28

In this episode, Katy Kaminski helps us explore the latest trends in managed futures and how different approaches to replication can impact performance and correlation. We explore the pros and cons of index versus mechanical replication, highlighting how each method reacts differently in various market conditions. Plus, we touch on the most recent developments in the ETF space and how they're reshaping access to CTAs, but also question if all of the new products are truly worthy of the "CTA" label. Stick around as we break down these ideas and share insights that can help shape your investment strategies. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn . Episode TimeStamps: 01:50 - What has caught our attention recently? 06:09 - Industry performance update 13:06 - Q1, Rick: Has Katy done any work on Co-Movement Factor and "offsides" systems? 18:12 - Q1.2, Rick: Katy's work shows us the dispersion between "slow" and "fast" systems w/ an optimal window of 10mo: How does this "optimal window" differ by year? 25:54 - Q2, Brian: Are there more individual investors than institutional investors? 28:43 - Q2.2: Are investors holding the ETF “long term”, or do they “chase performance”? 32:25 - Q3, Niels: How should we think about future returns in trend following? 36:24 - The beta of trend following and how to access it 44:05 - Combing index- and mechanical replication 50:58 - The pitfalls of replication strategies 52:32 - What does managed futures/CTAs mean to Katy? 59:14 - Why is mechanical replication often simplified versions of a full trend following system? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
IL35: The New Age of Economic Warfare: Are We Ready? ft. Edward Fishman 1:01:05

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1:01:05

Our guest on this episode is Edward Fishman, a world expert on the modern art of economic warfare. Edward is author of the new book Chokepoints: American Power In The Age of Economic Warfare. He currently teaches at Columbia University and prior to that advised the US Secretary of State, Joints Chiefs of Staff and Treasury Department on the deployment of economic sanctions. We discuss the details of how the US uses its dominant position in the world’s financial markets and technology software to pressure countries like Iran, Russia and China. Most importantly this episode explains why these tools used to influence these chokepoints are permanent and are starting to form the contours of the new global economy that will persist for the coming decades. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book . Follow Edward on X and read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - Introduction to Edward Fishman 08:24 - The failures of economic warfare 14:04 - What Stuart Levy can teach us about economic 19:26 - Who even want to work at banks nowadays? 22:10 - The most successful sanction in modern times 27:02 - The dangers of sanctions, export controls and tarifs 32:56 - What is a denial order and why is it such a powerful tool? 37:52 - What is the entity list and what is it used for? 38:55 - Technology chokepoints and the challenges they pose 46:08 - The secret to the American success 48:29 - Is the price cap on Russian oil actually working as intended? 53:31 - The oil market is changing 55:17 - Where is the global economy heading? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI336: How to Invest in Turbulent Times? ft. Graham Robertson 1:03:01

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1:03:01

With global market dynamics shifting rapidly and geopolitical noise reaching new heights, how can investors adapt and thrive? In this episode, we explore why an adaptive approach is crucial for navigating today’s turbulent financial landscape. Our conversation delves into the challenges investors face when competing against dominant market players and how trend-following strategies can shine in times of crisis. We also examine the often-overlooked disconnect between price and value - and how this mismatch might actually present fresh opportunities. Join us for an insightful discussion with Graham Robertson from Man AHL, as we unpack these critical insights and explore why trend following remains a powerful tool for generating "crisis alpha." Buckle up for a fascinating conversation! ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Graham on LinkedIn . Episode TimeStamps: 01:11 - What has caught our attention recently? 03:27 - Are kids too worried about the state of the world? 05:58 - Our current observations on trend 10:54 - How to capture the moves in the European energy markets 13:05 - Valuable insights on alternative markets 17:11 - Are alternative markets trending better? 23:02 - The state of liquidity in the industry 25:52 - How Man AHL approaches crypto 29:47 - Industry performance update 31:42 - Q1, Rick: Is a cross-over system typically the primary tool for Trend? 37:14 - The origins of breakout systems 41:36 - The taxi driver problem 46:15 - Using trend as a alternative defensive strategy 50:27 - Are investors expecting more from trend following? 53:35 - Defensive equities and the impact of Deepseek 57:59 - The disconnect between price and value Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
OI14: Behind the Scenes of a Crypto Hedge Fund ft. Michael Hall & Anatoly Crachlilov 1:07:10

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1:07:10

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Anatoly Crachilov and Michaell Hall from Nickel Digital, a prominent London-based crypto hedge fund. Anatoly (CEO) and Michael (CIO) founded the company in 2019 with an initial focus on in-house arbitrage and basis trading strategies. Over the years, their business model has evolved and adapted to the fast-changing world of digital assets. Today, Nickel Digital operates as a multi-strategy, multi-manager setup with more than $250 million in AUM, making it one of the largest and longest-standing crypto hedge funds globally. Anatoly, Michael and Moritz speak about the opportunities and challenges of operating a multi-PM digital asset hedge fund, how they differ from traditional asset hedge fund pod shops, and how the attract and find new PMs to work with them. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Linkedin. Follow Michael on LinkedIn. Follow Anatoly on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Introduction to Nickel Digital and how they found their way to crypto 08:10 - A trip down memory crypto lane 12:25 - Why is the basis still so wide on crypto? 15:07 - The state of alpha in the crypto space 18:23 - What kind of portfolio does Nickel Digital run? 19:56 - How they take advantage of automation to carry out a 24/7 365 trading strategy 22:24 - How they manage the managers 25:22 - How they approach netting cost 27:40 - Their process for paying managers 30:59 - Their manager onboarding process 38:41 - Why traders make more money at Nickel Digital than anywhere else 40:52 - What is the average sharpe ratio in the crypto space? 43:19 - The tech backbone - how Nickel Digital is connected to exchanges 46:08 - FTX collapse - The most stressful period for their business 49:46 - How they manage price and risk in 24 hours/day markets 54:06 - How crypto differ from regular markets 57:09 - The pitfalls of trading crypto 01:02:35 - What is their long term vision for Nickel Digital? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI335: Trend Following or Mean Reversion: What Works Best When? ft. Rob Carver 1:24:38

acum 5 weeks1:24:38

1:24:38

Join us for a fascinating and in-depth conversation with Rob Carver, where we’ll discuss the current state of gold, the impact of rising borrowing costs on futures pricing, and how these elements intertwine with market trends. Along the way, we’ll tackle listener questions that challenge the status quo, digging into everything from fees in the hedge fund world to the implications of recent political shifts. It's a jam-packed session for anyone looking to get a clearer picture of the investment landscape today. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter . Episode TimeStamps: 01:07 - What on earth is going on with gold? 04:58 - The hidden fees of the hedge fund world 11:25 - Industry performance update 15:00 - Q1, David: Since Rob's book was published, several multi-asset leveraged ETFs have become available. Do you think these products have a place in a long-term portfolio? If so, what kind of allocation would you consider reasonable? 21:17 - Q2, Carlos: Imagine a systematically traded trend following account starting with $100k across 10 markets. Over time, the account grows to $200k. Would it generally be “better” to split the capital into two separate and different trading strategies (each trading 10 instruments), or to add more instruments/markets to the existing strategy for greater market diversification? 24:49 - Q3, Chris: Does the use of ETFs to backtest Rob’s trend following strategies provide an accurate representation of performance? 29:41 - Q4, Steve: Any pointers on how to use predictive modelling techniques (linear regression, etc) and how would we combine it with your forecast scaling framework. Also can you comment on potential objective functions to use? 32:54 - Q5, Vik: Once you’ve included established risk premia rules like trend, carry, and fundamental valuations, do most research efforts by experienced teams in big and small firms amount to just fancy branding exercises? In a competitive environment where everyone is working with more or less the same data, is it possible to meaningfully move the needle? 38:19 - Q6, Andrew: Approximately about a year and a half ago or more you published on X that you were making a discretionary trade increasing your bond position. I am Just curious how that trade worked out and if you think, in retrospect, that discretionary call was correct? And are there any learnings for the rest of us about when to know if a discretionary call makes sense? 40:33 - Q7, Paul: What is the benefits/drawbacks of having an absolute strategy, that just looked at if the post returns were positive or negative (rather than relative to the performance of the asset class)? 43:12 - Q8, Samuel: What does the research say (if any) of trend following strategies that don't rely on lagging indicators? To your knowledge has anyone done any studies using the current state of monthly/quarterly/yearly candles for a trend following system? 48:41 - Q9, CryptoCaptain: How to handle missing data when contracts get delisted and then re-listed. Chatgpt suggested that I use Co-integration and Error Correction Models to fill the missing data because the larger contract data is available. What are other things I can try out? 52:01 - Key insights from Quantica on position sizing 55:14 - What should we be paying for risk? 59:10 - Should you still optimize for sharpe? 01:02:10 - Trends and Reversions in Financial Markets 01:09:43 - The economic consequences of Donald Trump Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
ALO28: Why Hedge Funds Still Matter ft. Alexander de Bruin 1:00:06

acum 6 weeks1:00:06

1:00:06

In this episode, Alexander de Bruin, Head of Fund Research at Edmond de Rothschild, joins Alan Dunne to discuss the art and science of selecting managers and building portfolios of alternatives. Alexander shares insights from his background in convertible bond trading and how it has shaped his approach to allocating capital. The conversation explores the rapid growth of private markets, with a focus on the current opportunities in private credit. They also delve into Alexander's framework for constructing hedge fund portfolios, examining the role of multi-manager, multi-strategy funds compared to other diversifying strategies. Alexander provides a behind-the-scenes look at his manager due diligence process, including his unique approach of sitting on the trading floor with hedge fund managers to gain a deeper understanding of their strategies. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter . Episode TimeStamps: 02:26 - Introduction to Alexander de Bruin 09:08 - The clients and portfolios that Edmond de Rothschild 13:24 - Should the 60/40 portfolio be revamped? 15:45 - de Bruin's approach to implementing new strategies 19:46 - How de Bruin deal with the paranoia of something going wrong 22:33 - Is there a place for multi-strat approaches? 25:14 - The challenges of managing risk as a multi-strat manager 26:59 - How hedge funds deal with portfolio constraints 29:25 - Opportunities and risks in private markets 35:37 - How high yield portfolios are allocated 37:31 - Which managers do they prefer? 39:49 - How to assess hedge funds as a manager and vice versa 44:51 - How de Bruin uses his backgammon experience when selecting managers 47:54 - Move the managers to where there is more edge 50:05 - Where does the disappointment in hedge fund allocation stem from? 53:36 - Are hedge funds becoming more open to high volatility strategies? 54:49 - What are Edmond de Rothschild looking for in managers? 56:41 - Advice for other investors Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI334: Why Quants Might Be Your Best Bet ft. Nick Baltas 58:29

acum 6 weeks58:29

58:29

Together with Nick Baltas, we're diving deep into systematic investing to discuss why strategies like trend following is a hidden gem in the current (crazy) economic and geo-political landscape. We touch on recent trends, the implications of AI in investing, and how these dynamics can impact our portfolios. We also discuss the costs of rebalancing and the potential pitfalls when it comes to fixed-weight portfolios, how the trust in the financial system and economic data is starting to fade rapidly and much more. Stay tuned, there is a lot to unpack. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter . Episode TimeStamps: 01:40 - What has caught our attention recently? 05:26 - A mini crash in the crypto space 11:24 - Breath vs Size of Crypto Investors 14:24 - The US Fixed Income policy is changing 16:07 - Industry performance update 19:21 - Reviewing current trends in 2025 23:46 - How people react to trend following as a defensive strategy 28:51 - What are the most popular risk mitigation strategies? 30:53 - An alternative way of allocating away from bonds and into "safe" equities 38:13 - The trust in the system is fading...rapidly 46:53 - Why price might be more accurate when using trend following 49:42 - The unintended impact of rebalancing Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
ALO27: Unlocking Wealth: Insights from UBS's CIO Mark Haefele 1:02:39

acum 7 weeks1:02:39

1:02:39

Mark Haefele, CIO of Global Wealth Management at UBS, shares valuable insights on the evolving landscape of investing amidst unprecedented government intervention in the economy. He emphasizes that understanding the role of government spending and its impact on market dynamics is crucial for today's investors. The conversation explores the distinction between managing wealth and managing investments, highlighting the importance of adopting a mindset of abundance rather than scarcity. Haefele also explains the significance of long-term structural trends, such as demographics and digitalization, which shape investment decisions. Throughout the discussion, he offers practical advice for navigating the complexities of investing in a world where macroeconomic factors increasingly influence outcomes. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter . Follow Mark on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:30 - Introduction to Mark Haefele 05:13 - Behind the scenes of Haefele's job 06:46 - The key takeaways from Haefele's book 09:01 - The difference between managing your wealth and managing your investment 11:16 - How has the investing world changed over the years? 14:50 - Is now a culmination of previous crises? 16:58 - The 5 structural trends of the global economy and how it relates to government spending 19:58 - How they apply the 5 structural trends in a broad sense 22:19 - The most important thing you can do for your portfolio 24:09 - Big problems are big money 25:08 - A historical perspective of the economy 27:43 - Are we moving into an era of greater economic intervention? 30:11 - Was Covid19 the beginning of a new era for inflation? 34:07 - Why private markets are crucial for your portfolio 37:39 - Tips to avoid investing on trends that are peaking 42:41 - Overcoming the behavioural challenges as an investor 47:04 - Half of the battle is mental 49:55 - Advice to become a great investor 52:16 - Understanding your relationship to money 54:31 - Practical ideas for investing with ESG 57:25 - Haefele's perspective on US international relationships 01:00:15 - Key advice for other investors Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer…

Top Traders Unplugged

1
SI333: Convexity - The Trend Following Game Changer! ft. Richard Brennan 1:12:55

acum 7 weeks1:12:55