Manage episode 371803858 series 2656707
The most anticipated recession in history still hasn't turned up. All those calls about a US-led recession starting in 2023 have been pushed back. In some cases, those calls are being pushed as far back as the second half of 2024. Others, like Goldman Sachs, have just cut the odds of a US recession occurring altogether - it's now down to a 20% chance in its eyes.
Here in Australia, disinflation continues to occur with the headline print recently coming in at +5.6% year-on-year. Sure, it's not the RBA's cherished 2-3% target but it's a lot nearer than the 8% we were experiencing at the end of last year. The unemployment rate is still below 4% and the economy is still expanding.
Corporate earnings also continue to be resilient and earnings guidance statements so far this confession season continue to provide an impetus for this market to grind slowly but surely higher in spite of all the headwinds.
All of this begs an important question - what if the optimists were right all along? And if they are, what stocks do you want to own in that dream scenario?
In this edition of Buy Hold Sell, we're talking about which ASX-listed stocks you would want to own (or not own) in a Goldilocks scenario. Joining moderator Hans Lee are Andrew McKie from Elston Asset Management and Rob Crookston from WILSONS.
Note: This episode was taped Wednesday 12 June 2023.