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1288 - Recession Predictions: Why They’re Often Wrong, and Why the Narrative Continues to Switch by Anna Cottrell

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On any given day, depending on who you ask, we are either years away from the faintest possibility of a recession or about to enter one. Economists have made several dizzying U-turns in their predictions over the past couple of years, with the latest narrative claiming a recession is highly unlikely in 2024 and subsequent years.

That’s a stark change in tone from only a year ago. A poll of 70 economists by The Wall Street Journal in January 2023 put the odds of a recession at 61%.

Yet at least one independent economist, James F. Smith, dissented and put the odds of a recession at a minuscule 1%. We already know who was right in 2023, but what was the reasoning behind the confident 1% prognosis?

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1315 episoade

Artwork
iconDistribuie
 
Manage episode 414212533 series 2813754
Content provided by BiggerPockets. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by BiggerPockets or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ro.player.fm/legal.

On any given day, depending on who you ask, we are either years away from the faintest possibility of a recession or about to enter one. Economists have made several dizzying U-turns in their predictions over the past couple of years, with the latest narrative claiming a recession is highly unlikely in 2024 and subsequent years.

That’s a stark change in tone from only a year ago. A poll of 70 economists by The Wall Street Journal in January 2023 put the odds of a recession at 61%.

Yet at least one independent economist, James F. Smith, dissented and put the odds of a recession at a minuscule 1%. We already know who was right in 2023, but what was the reasoning behind the confident 1% prognosis?

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  continue reading

1315 episoade

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