John MacDonald: What my gut instinct is telling me about the US presidency

Canterbury Mornings with John MacDonald

Historic. Knife edge. Too close to call. That’s what they’re all saying about today’s presidential election in the States.

What you never see though, splashed across the screens on CNN and Sky News and BBC, is “gut instinct”.

My gut tells me that it’s going to be Donald Trump. And, this is the great thing about gut instinct, it doesn't really matter whether you’re wrong or right - it’s just how you feel about something.

And I’ve got this feeling that Trump is going to take it out.

And the reason I feel that way can be summed-up in one word: change.

When it comes to elections, people love change. The media loves change. But voters, especially, love change.

And you’ve got to give Trump credit for doing something Kamala Harris hasn’t done - and that is to do a much better job of selling the idea of change. Trump still represents change. Just like he did back in 2016. He still does now.

I think no one would disagree that Joe Biden stepping aside and letting Kamala Harris run for president was a no-brainer, it just took Joe a while to come ‘round to the idea.

But that is where the change started and stopped for the Democrats. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

From a distance —and this is the danger when you judge politicians from a distance— but, from where I sit, Harris wins hands down.

But I don’t think she deserves to be the next president. And I am confident that enough Americans will feel the same way and that’s why I think enough of them will give their vote to Donald Trump and he will be the next president.

When she did that first TV debate after she took over as the Democrats candidate from Joe Biden, I watched that and thought she had it in the bag.

When Trump came up with all that nonsense about immigrants eating people’s dogs and cats, I thought she handled all that beautifully. And I thought he had blown it – not just with the dogs and cats stuff but all the rambling.

And the rambling hasn’t stopped, of course. The stuff that comes out of his mouth is nonsense half the time - if not most of the time. But, if there’s one thing going for Trump —certainly in the eyes of American voters— it’s that he oozes change.

You know he’s going to shake things up. You know he’s going to say what he really thinks. You know that he’s all talk about loving Puerto Ricans and all that nonsense about protecting women and making America great again.

It’s all nonsense. It’s all awful. But compare that to Kamala Harris —and put it through the filter of voters loving change— and he wins hands down.

Ever since that TV debate —where she was the obvious stand-out— I’ve found her talk of change hollow, to say the least.

As someone said to me last night when she was on the TV news saying it’s time for change and time to do things differently and it’s time to end the division - someone else who was watching said to me ‘hasn’t she been part of this so-called problem over the past 10 years?’

And, for me, it’s got to the point where I think the majority of American voters will be thinking the same thing.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.