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Ep. 123: This Month's CPI Report - Inflation Peek-a-Boo

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Content provided by Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ro.player.fm/legal.

One of the perils of being an analyst (although the Inflation Guy happens to be an investor and trader, and only coincidentally an analyst) is that behavioral biases tend to make us exaggerate the importance of any small collection of data. This appears to be what happened in the summer, when a couple of low CPI prints persuaded the Federal Reserve that the inflation battle was essentially won and it could turn its attention to the developing weakness in the economy.

Peek-a-boo! Over the last couple of months, inflation has come back to just about exactly where it was before the dip during the summer, raising at least the tickle of a question about whether the Fed's 50bps interest rate cut recently could constitute a policy error. In this episode, the Inflation Guy breaks down the data and opines on this topic.

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (September 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-september-2024/)

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon)

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

  continue reading

104 episoade

Artwork
iconDistribuie
 
Manage episode 444548980 series 3283645
Content provided by Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ro.player.fm/legal.

One of the perils of being an analyst (although the Inflation Guy happens to be an investor and trader, and only coincidentally an analyst) is that behavioral biases tend to make us exaggerate the importance of any small collection of data. This appears to be what happened in the summer, when a couple of low CPI prints persuaded the Federal Reserve that the inflation battle was essentially won and it could turn its attention to the developing weakness in the economy.

Peek-a-boo! Over the last couple of months, inflation has come back to just about exactly where it was before the dip during the summer, raising at least the tickle of a question about whether the Fed's 50bps interest rate cut recently could constitute a policy error. In this episode, the Inflation Guy breaks down the data and opines on this topic.

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (September 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-september-2024/)

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ (we may close up subscriptions to this soon)

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

  continue reading

104 episoade

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