Michael Swaine warns against 'radical deterrence' in US-China policy

Crashing the War Party

Ask anyone in Washington and they'll tell you, in varying levels of panic, that China is a threat to the United States. Some will say it's the greatest threat ever or, in military-speak, the "pacing threat." So who is right? And if China is a challenge or even a threat, to its neighbors if not America directly, then how does the Biden Administration rationally deal with that?

We asked longtime China security studies expert Michael Swaine to join us this week to talk about current U.S. policy and whether or not it is going in the wrong direction. He tells us that the saber-rattling on both sides of the political aisle is risking a "radical deterrence" effect — in other words, there is a way to do positive deterrence that avoids war, not "radical deterrence," which drives you closer to real conflict.

In the first segment, Kelley and Dan hash out their favorite headlines of the week, including Zelensky's visit to Washington, Biden's signing of defense security assurances for Bahrain (and possibly for Saudi soon, too), and Canadian accusations that the Indian government is linked to the assassination of a Sikh independence activist in British Columbia in June.

More from Michael Swaine:

How to Break the Impasse in U.S.-China Crisis Communication, United States Institute of Peace,7/26/23

A Restraint Approach to U.S.–China Relations: Reversing the Slide Toward Crisis and Conflict, with Andrew Bacevich, the Quincy Institute, 4/18/23

The Worrisome Erosion of the One China Policy, The National Interest, 2/27/23

A Restraint Recipe for America’s Asian Alliances and Security Partnerships, with Sarang Shidore, Quincy Institute, 11/18/22

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com