Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 6

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Editor’s Note: This season, John Daigle will be writing Matchups for one afternoon game, SNF, and MNF. For these games, Evan Silva is also providing his notes to incorporate into the column.

SF @ SEA | JAX vs. CHI | ARI @ GB | IND @ TEN | HOU @ NE | TB @ NO | CLE @ PHI | WAS @ BAL | LAC @ DEN | PIT @ LV | DET @ DAL | ATL @ CAR | CIN @ NYG | BUF @ NYJ

Thursday Night Football

San Francisco @ Seattle

Team Totals: 49ers 26, Seahawks 22.5

Fantasy’s QB12 entering Week 6, Brock Purdy will face a Seahawks defense on Thursday night missing first-round pick DT Byron Murphy (hamstring) and starting EDGE Uchenna Nwosu (MCL/thigh, I.R.), while No. 2 CB Tariq Woolen (ankle) and No. 3 EDGE Derick Hall (foot) could also sit. Purdy profiles as a questionable-ceiling but high-floor QB1 starter. … League touches leader Jordan Mason (112) encounters a banged-up Seattle front seven enemy backs have clipped for 4.7 yards per carry and 141.6 total yards per game. Mason has earned elite RB1 treatment week in and week out, while Christian McCaffrey’s (Achilles, I.R.) timeline remains wholly uncertain. Interim 49ers No. 2 RB Isaac Guerendo has yet to play more than 10 offensive snaps in a 2024 contest.

Purdy’s Weeks 1-5 target distribution: Brandon Aiyuk 37; Jauan Jennings 31; George Kittle 29; Deebo Samuel 27; Kyle Juszczyk 10; Mason 8. … A Weeks 1-4 black hole following his training-camp holdout, Aiyuk busted loose for 8/147/0 receiving in last Sunday’s loss and has now drawn double-digit targets in two of San Francisco’s last three games. He’s a WR2 with WR1 upside on TNF. … Jennings has settled back in as San Francisco’s role-playing No. 3 wideout with Aiyuk rolling and Samuel healthy. Jennings remains playable on one-game DFS slates. … Kittle leads all tight ends in PPR points per game. Seattle has permitted the NFL’s seventh-most catches (28) and fourth-most yards (286) to tight ends. … Samuel’s box-score results have been muted in two games since returning from Week 2’s calf injury, but he is still hovering around 80% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps and being used in both the pass and run games. Samuel is one of my favorite Week 6 plays in single-game DFS

Geno Smith warrants fringe QB1/2 valuation at home against a 49ers defense that ranks around league medians in pass-game production allowed but remains dangerous in the pass-rush department. Seattle has permitted the NFL’s second-most QB hurries (17), sixth-most QB hits (16), and third-most QB pressures (51). I’m treating Smith as a boom-bust bet in season-long leagues and strongly considering San Francisco’s D/ST. … Kenneth Walker stayed ahead of Zach Charbonnet in Week 5’s loss, out-snapping Charbonnet 39 to 21 and out-touching him 12 to 5 against the Giants. Nothing stands out especially positively or negatively about Walker’s TNF matchup, but he always offers game-breaking potential.

Geno’s Weeks 1-5 targets: DK Metcalf 43; Jaxon Smith-Njigba 40; Tyler Lockett 32; Charbonnet 22; Noah Fant 18; Walker 16. … Metcalf is averaging a hot 6.3/98/0.5 receiving line over his last four games, while 49ers top CB Charvarius Ward (knee) will play at less than 100% here. … Continuing to work ahead of Lockett as Seattle’s No. 2 receiver, Smith-Njigba has commanded 9.5 targets per game in the last month. JSN has earned volume-driven WR3 treatment regardless of opponent. … Still leading the Seahawks in first-down catches (17), Lockett is WR4/flex playable and offers appeal on one-game DFS slates. … Fant has gone 24 straight games without a receiving touchdown. Maybe he’s just due.

Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Seahawks 21

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

9:30 AM ET Game (England)

Jacksonville @ Chicago

Team Totals: Jaguars 21.5, Bears 23

Fresh off a season-best QB9 finish against DC Gus Bradley and Indy’s “defense”, Trevor Lawrence is awarded a Bears unit that’s registered more multi-interception (two) than multi-touchdown (zero) performances with C.J. Stroud maxing out as the QB13 against them. Key absences in CB Tyrique Stevenson (calf) and S Jaquan Brisker (concussion) leave the light on for Lawrence in Superflex leagues in an otherwise impossible spot. … Tank Bigsby allegedly played more in the second half against Indy because Travis Etienne was nursing the shoulder injury he suffered in pass protection in Week 4. Regardless of why he was on the field, Bigsby singlehandedly saved HC Doug Pederson’s job in leading the league in YAC per attempt (5.82) with 17.9% of his carries gaining 15 yards (first among 58 qualifiers with 15 runs). Whereas Etienne has reached 70 rushing yards in only one of his last 14 games, Bigsby has done so in all three appearances he’s split touches this year. He’s an RB2 over Etienne (an RB3 himself) against Chicago, which has leaked 4.7 yards per carry (10th) to opposing runners. Etienne’s 13 targets the last two weeks provides a higher floor in full point-per-reception leagues.

Brian Thomas Jr. became the first 22 MPH+ ball carrier of the season during his 85-yard TD against the Colts, leading the Jaguars in target share (8, 23.5%) for the first time all year. Bears DC Eric Washington has schemed zone coverage on nearly a third (74.4%) of the team’s defensive snaps, which Thomas Jr. has seen 28.6% (eighth) of his targets against for 18.1 yards per catch (eighth), per Pro Football Focus. … Jacksonville’s success from the ground in Week 5 ultimately led to Christian Kirk logging a season-low route rate (65.7%) to get more OL and TEs on the field. Long removed from his poor 2/29/0 receiving through two games, Kirk has since averaged 8.6 targets as a WR3/4 (especially in any negative game scripts). … A team-high 72% of Gabe Davis’ targets have come 10 yards downfield, where the Bears have permitted a 67.2% completion rate (23rd) and 7.1 YPA (24th) on said throws. Davis remains a boom-bust option best reserved for 14-team leagues given Chicago’s sudden injuries in their secondary. … Including his lone 2024 appearance in the season opener, Evan Engram (hamstring) has not recorded a single end-zone target or touchdown with Kirk available dating back to last year; all four of his TDs in 2023 came with Kirk injured from Week 13 on. I question Engram’s ceiling for one-game slates, though his reception floor in season-long formats is solid. Brenton Strange (two routes) and Luke Farrell (one) were not involved behind Engram in Week 1.

Every quarterback to face the Jaguars this year has finished as a top-11 option, Deshaun Watson (who should not be starting in the NFL) included. Albeit against the Colts (third-most points per game allowed under center), Rams (ninth), and Panthers (eighth) the past three games, Caleb Willams has improved with every snap, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt (eighth) from a clean pocket in that time; Jacksonville only pressured pocket sloth Joe Flacco on 22.4% (27th) of his dropbacks in Week 5. Williams is a QB1 in London. … D’Andre Swift’s share of backfield touches only increased from 65.9% in Chicago’s first three games to 73.1% the past two weeks — a negligent uptick — but resulted in 29.5- and 20-point performances due to the team’s aforementioned softer schedule against the Rams (fourth in weekly points allowed to RBs) and Panthers (first). The Jaguars present a tougher test, boasting the seventh-best success rate (35.2%) and third-fewest yards after contact per attempt (1.84) from the ground. Fortunately, Jacksonville has ceded 12.3 receiving points per game to enemy backfields, boosting Swift for his 11.2% target share. I bet him to record 25+ receiving yards (+150) on DraftKings. … 77.9% of Roschon Johnson’s fantasy points the past two weeks have derived from touchdowns, reaching the end zone on three 1-yard carries. Still, this has become a Swift-Roschon backfield, as Khalil Herbert’s three snaps against the Panthers occurred on kneel-downs. He’s been phased out entirely and is not worth rostering over Roschon in managed leagues.

With their receivers at full strength, the Bears have settled into their 11-personnel offense with D.J. Moore (87% route rate the last two games), Keenan Allen (80%), and Rome Odunze (79%) plus Cole Kmet (67%) at tight end. Moore pops as a WR1 for last year’s bullish production — 3.86 Yards Per Route Run (fourth), 19.9 YPC (13th) — against man coverage, which Jags DC Ryan Nielsen has deployed on 43.8% (third) of the team’s snaps. Only the Ravens have permitted more fantasy points to opposing slot receivers than Jacksonville, elevating 32-year-old Allen (and his team-high 53% route rate from that area of the field) for his on-paper matchup. With a team-high 10 targets (37%) earned 20 yards deep, Odunze is an appealing WR4/FLEX. … Kmet’s impact blocking has allowed him to lap Gerald Everett (18 total routes since Week 4) as a key piece in Chicago’s offense, the former earning a double-digit target share in four consecutive games. For what it’s worth, Mo Alie-Cox most recently spiked Jacksonville’s secondary for an 18-yard score.

Score Prediction: Bears 24, Jaguars 13

Cardinals at Packers coming soon

Colts at Titans coming soon

Houston @ New England

Team Totals: Texans 22.5, Patriots 15.5

Missing alpha WR Nico Collins (hamstring) against a well-coached Patriots defense on the road in what profiles as a low-scoring affair, this is a relatively statistically-unfriendly situation for C.J. Stroud, who’s been a fringe QB1/2 scorer to date, anyway. New England has allowed the NFL’s ninth-fewest fantasy quarterback points. … I’m anticipating one more missed week for Joe Mixon (ankle) in a game the Texans should feel confident they’ll win without him. In Week 5’s win over Buffalo, usual special teamer Dare Ogunbowale out-snapped Cam Akers 46 to 22 and out-touched him 21 to 11. Akers was more efficient on the ground, however. I’m valuing both in desperation-flex territory against the Patriots.

Remove Collins, and Stefon Diggs leads Houston in targets (37), catches (28), yards (297), and first-down receptions (18) on Stroud’s 2024 throws. Playing over half of his snaps in the slot, Diggs should avoid Pats top CB Christian Gonzalez for most of Sunday. … Tank Dell’s route running and ball skills are too good for him to stay quiet much longer. He efficiently caught nine of 10 targets for 100 yards over the last two weeks, and it’s only a matter of time before he reels in a long one. Dell averaged 15.1 yards per catch as a rookie; he’s at 10.5 this year. … 2023 sixth-round pick Xavier Hutchinson stood in as Collins’ one-for-one replacement against the Bills. Big bodied at 6-foot-2, 203, Hutchinson offers WR4/flex appeal based on his elite quarterback and red-zone potential. … The Texans need more out of $36 million TE Dalton Schultz, especially against a Patriots defense that’s been leveled by injuries and off-field stuff at key middle-of-the-field spots. Stud MLB Ja’Whaun Bentley (torn pec) is on I.R. SS Kyle Dugger (ankle) missed Week 5. Already dealing with a shoulder injury, FS Jabrill Peppers was arrested on numerous disturbing charges this past weekend.

The Patriots are throwing Drake Maye to the wolves, and no honest observer can dismiss the massive obstacles he faces surrounded by arguably football’s worst offensive line — which recently lost top player C David Andrews (shoulder) to I.R. — and lacks a single proven pass catcher beyond Hunter Henry, who is scoreless on the season and topped 32 yards once in New England’s first five games. The Texans are also a very difficult defense to play against considering their ability to stop the run, dangerous edge-rush duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, and the stingy backend CB combination of Derek Stingley Jr. and Kwame Lassiter. Deservedly, Houston’s D/ST is going to be an immensely popular Week 6 play. … Rhamondre Stevenson split Week 5 snaps evenly with Antonio Gibson but outplayed him, snapped his four-game fumbling streak, and warrants RB2/flex valuation versus Houston. Until Maye settles in, Stevenson should be the Patriots’ offensive engine.

Score Prediction: Texans 21, Patriots 10

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Team Totals: Bucs 22, Saints 19

Off long rest following Week 5’s Thursday night loss to Atlanta, the Bucs now face a stout Saints defense allowing the NFL’s eighth-fewest points per game (19.2) in what projects as a low-scoring affair. I’m tapping brakes on Baker Mayfield as a QB1 option. … Even after losing a killer Week 5 late-game fumble against the Falcons, Bucky Irving appears likely to lead the Bucs’ Week 6 backfield with Rachaad White nursing a foot injury. As of Thursday, sophomore Sean Tucker (17 career carries) was the only other tailback on Tampa’s active roster. The Saints present a largely neutral run-defense matchup. I’m upgrading Irving into RB2/flex territory and downgrading White out of startable range in season-long leagues.

Mayfield’s Weeks 1-5 target distribution: Chris Godwin 40; Mike Evans 36; Cade Otton 25; White 19; Irving 10; Sterling Shepard 7; Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer 6. … In addition to targets, Godwin leads Tampa in catches (32), yards (386), and first-down conversions (25) on Baker’s throws. Godwin’s last five stat lines against the Saints are 3/81/1, 8/114/0, 8/63/0, 6/49/0, and 8/140/1. … Saints top CB Marshon Lattimore has owned Mike Evans in past meetings; Evans’ receiving results in their last seven encounters are 3/40/0, 3/61/0, 1/14/0, 2/48/1, 1/3/1, 4/64/0, and 1/2/1. … The Bucs’ third receiver position has been a to-date black hole for production. It’ll either be McMillan (hamstring) or Shepard this week. … Otton is no one’s idea of a playmaker, but he does rank No. 9 among tight ends in targets and No. 10 in receptions (17). This is a plus draw for Otton against a Saints defense yielding the NFL’s fourth-most catches (29) and third-most receiving yards (321) to tight ends.

Derek Carr’s oblique tear thrusts fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler into the Saints’ starting lineup, although second-year fourth-rounder Jake Haener is also a candidate to see Week 6 snaps. As C Erik McCoy (groin, I.R.), LG Lucas Patrick (chest), and RG Cesar Ruiz (knee) all look likely to sit, Tampa’s D/ST is a standout play. … NFL touches leader Alvin Kamara (114) will play through hip and hand injuries against the Bucs, but massive early-season workloads appear to be catching up to him. I’m stashing Kendre Miller wherever possible. … Saints pass-catcher projections are up in the air with a Day 3 rookie QB under center. Rattler did express in press conferences this week that he’s intent on feeding Chris Olave. Outlooks for Rashid Shaheed, Foster Moreau, and Juwan Johnson are nebulous at best.

Score Prediction: Bucs 21, Saints 13

Cleveland @ Philadelphia

Team Totals: Eagles 25.5, Browns 16.5

Cleveland’s stubborn commitment to Deshaun Watson bodes well for fantasy owners of enemy D/STs; Watson is on pace to take an NFL-record 88 sacks. Barely playable in two-quarterback/Superflex leagues, Watson is fantasy’s QB25 scorer to date. … The Browns’ week-to-week running back rotation has lacked rhyme and reason; Weeks 3-4 lead RB Jerome Ford carried the ball just twice in the first half of Week 5’s loss and out-touched D’Onta Foreman by a mere 12-to-10 margin at Washington. Nick Chubb (knee) and Nyheim Hines (knee) both appear to have an outside chance at making their 2024 debuts at Philadelphia. I’m fully fading this backfield in Week 6. … No NFL defense has allowed more fantasy points per game to wideouts than the Eagles’, while no receiver corps has missed more opportunities than Cleveland’s. Amari Cooper is a boom-bust WR3, Jerry Jeudy is a WR4/flex option, and Elijah Moore hasn’t been relevant at all. … Back from his high ankle sprain in Week 5, David Njoku caught an early 14-yard pass, then injured his knee against Washington. Betting on Cleveland’s pass game has been a losing proposition.

Cleveland ordinarily presents an imposing matchup for quarterbacks, but Jalen Hurts is an opponent-proof producer with his supporting cast at full strength. Healthy after Week 5’s bye, Hurts gets back A.J. Brown (hamstring), DeVonta Smith (concussion), and RT Lane Johnson (concussion) against a Browns defense potentially missing No. 1 CB Denzel Ward (hamstring), FS Ronnie Hickman (ankle), and SS Grant Delpit (concussion). I’m keeping Hurts locked in as an elite QB1 play. … Fresh legged off last week’s bye, Saquon Barkley is on pace for career highs in yards per carry (6.0) and total yards (2,210). The Browns have presented a neutral matchup for running backs, allowing the NFL’s 13th-most fantasy points to the position. Barkley has established himself as fantasy’s premier RB1 play each week.

The Browns typically present a difficult draw for wide receivers, but their assortment of DB injuries could change that. A true alpha WR1, Brown banked 5/119/1 receiving in Week 1’s win over Green Bay before missing the last three games. … A model of consistency, Smith has logged 70+ yards and/or a TD in 11 of his last 13 appearances (including playoffs). … Dallas Goedert’s production has obviously been hiked by Brown and Smith’s missed time, but he’s the overall TE4 in per-game scoring at by far fantasy’s weakest position.

Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Browns 13

Washington @ Baltimore

Team Totals: Ravens 29.5, Commanders 23

Winners of four straight and scorers of 38.0 points per game over their last three, the Commanders visit Baltimore for a projected shootout; Washington-Baltimore is tied with Detroit-Dallas for Week 6’s highest-totaled affair. A whopping -230 favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels is fantasy’s overall QB2 on the season, while Baltimore has surrendered the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy quarterback points. … Brian Robinson Jr. toughed out a knee injury to punch in two TDs in last week’s win over Cleveland but didn’t play in the second half due to the blowout nature of the game. (Daniels was also rested for Marcus Mariota.) The Ravens have played extremely stout run defense, holding enemy RBs to 2.9 yards per carry. I prefer passing-down specialist Austin Ekeler to Robinson in this spot; the Commanders are big road dogs, and Baltimore has allowed the NFL’s 10th-most receiving yards to running backs (182). ILB Roquan Smith has been exploited in coverage.

Daniels’ Weeks 1-5 targets: Terry McLaurin 36; Zach Ertz 24; Olamide Zaccheaus 14; Ekeler and Robinson 11; Noah Brown and Luke McCaffrey 10; Dyami Brown 9. … Deep-ball specialist McLaurin leads the NFL in Air Yards share (57%), while Baltimore has given up the second-most 20+ yard receptions (23). McLaurin deserves legit WR1 valuation here. … Ertz’s raw target numbers look enticing, but he’s scored one TD over his last 13 games and is under 8.0 yards per catch in that span. Ben Sinnott and John Bates warrant more run. … Washington seems committed to a widespread Nos. 2-5 WR rotation involving Zaccheaus, McCaffrey, and the Browns, leaving us without a strong ancillary fantasy bet.

Hitting his groove in Year 2 of OC Todd Monken’s offense, Lamar Jackson enters Week 6 ranked No. 1 among quarterbacks in fantasy points and on pace to throw for a career-high 4,100 yards while leading his position in rushing (363). Washington’s defense has so far beaten expectations under first-year HC Dan Quinn but is yielding the league’s second-highest passer rating (114.7). Firmly in the hunt for his third career MVP award, Jackson is fantasy’s premier QB1 play each week. … Derrick Henry is typically a smash as a home favorite — and the Ravens are favored by nearly a touchdown here — while running backs have tagged Washington for a combined 110/581/3 (5.3 YPC) rushing line to date. Five games in, Henry ranks No. 1 in the NFL in rushing yards (572), No. 2 in carries (95), No. 1 in rushing touchdowns (6), and No. 1 in 20+ yard runs (7). He’s been everything the Ravens hoped for and more. … Sunday’s game doesn’t set up quite as well for Justice Hill, who’s been a big factor when Baltimore falls behind but not as much when they’re ahead.

Jackson’s 2024 targets: Zay Flowers 39; Rashod Bateman 22; Isaiah Likely 21; Hill 20; Mark Andrews 14; Nelson Agholor 12; Henry 7; Charlie Kolar 6. … Flowers drew double-digit targets in three of Baltimore’s first five games. He now faces a Commanders defense allowing the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy WR points. … This game’s track-meet potential gives Bateman WR3/flex viability. Bateman is playing over 70% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps and drew eight targets in Week 5’s back-and-forth bout with Cincinnati. … The Ravens’ three-way tight end rotation removes reliability from each individual member. Likely paced the position group in Week 5 routes run, while usual blocker Kolar led the unit in yards, and Andrews was silent before second-half urgency mode. I still consider Likely the best fantasy bet of the trio. Andrews has devolved into a dangerous low-floor gamble.

Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Commanders 23

L.A. Chargers @ Denver

Team Totals: Chargers 19, Broncos 16.5

Chargers-Broncos is Week 6’s lowest-totaled game, making it an affair to fade in most fantasy decisions. … Still limited in practice, Justin Herbert (ankle) threw for fewer than 180 yards in each of his first four 2024 starts. Denver is allowing the NFL’s second-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.8) and fifth-lowest QB rating (75.5) while ranking No. 3 in the league in sacks (19). … Stud Chargers OTs Rashawn Slater (pec) and Joe Alt (knee) seem likely to return here, while Gus Edwards’ (ankle) status is in doubt. Even with Edwards in the lineup, J.K. Dobbins averaged 16.5 touches over the Bolts’ initial four games. If Gus can’t play, Dobbins will warrant high-end RB2 treatment in what projects as a neutral-script affair that would allow the Chargers to lean on the run. Hassan Haskins — who played for HC Jim Harbaugh at Michigan — has been the Bolts’ next man up behind Dobbins and Gus to this point. Sixth-round rookie Kimani Vidal has yet to play a 2024 offensive snap.

Herbert’s 2024 target distribution: Ladd McConkey 23; Quentin Johnston 18; Dobbins, Will Dissly, Josh Palmer, and Hayden Hurst 10. … McConkey has yet to clear 70 yards in a 2024 game, while Denver has permitted the NFL’s second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. … Johnston is playing nearly 80% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps but has yet to top six targets or 51 yards in an individual game. He’s a touchdown-reliant WR4/flex option. … Ancillary pass catchers lack fantasy appeal in the Chargers’ heavily run-devoted offense.

Fantasy’s to-date QB18 scorer, Bo Nix faces a Chargers defense permitting the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy QB points per game in Week 6’s lowest-totaled contest. … Javonte Williams is averaging 18 touches, 4.8 yards per carry, and 95.5 yards from scrimmage over Denver’s last two games. Jaleel McLaughlin has earned a secure change-of-pace role, but Tyler Badie (back) is on I.R., and Williams has reasserted himself as the Broncos’ primary back. Even against a so-far stout Bolts run defense, I’m teeing up Williams as an RB2/flex play.

Nix’s 2024 target distribution: Courtland Sutton 41; Williams 20; Josh Reynolds 19; Lil’Jordan Humphrey 17; Troy Franklin and Greg Dulcich 12; McLaughlin 11. … Only four teams are allowing fewer fantasy points to wide receivers than the Chargers. Sutton has yet to clear 70 yards in a game with Nix, while Nix’s completion rate when targeting Sutton is an anemic 41.5%. … Humphrey, Reynolds, Franklin, and Marvin Mims are unproductively sharing complementary wideout usage. None of them are fantasy viable here. … Dulcich was a healthy scratch in Week 5. Broncos tight ends carry zero fantasy relevance.

Score Prediction: Chargers 17, Broncos 16

Pittsburgh @ Las Vegas

Team Totals: Steelers 19.5, Raiders 16.5

Despite his to-date efficiency struggles, this profiles as a Najee Harris game with Nos. 2 and 3 RBs Jaylen Warren (knee) and Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) sidelined against a Raiders team that was hemorrhaging 5.2 yards per carry and 145.4 total yards per game to enemy backs before losing $110 million DT Christian Wilkins (foot surgery) to I.R. Harris has been downright awful to date — he’s scoreless on the season and averaging 3.29 yards per carry — but his Week 6 volume projection is enormous. … Coming off his worst game as a Steeler in last Sunday night’s loss to Dallas, Justin Fields should already be feeling job-security pressure with Russell Wilson (calf) returning to full practice. Nothing stands out overly positively or negatively about Fields’ matchup at Las Vegas — the Raiders have played competitive to-date pass defense — so I’m viewing Fields as a borderline QB1/2 option here.

Fields’ Weeks 1-5 targets: George Pickens 36; Pat Freiermuth 22; Harris 17; Van Jefferson 13; Calvin Austin 12; Patterson 7; Darnell Washington 6; Warren 5. … Pickens’ snap rate was curiously cut to a season-low 59% in Week 5’s defeat. HC Mike Tomlin’s post-game explanation for the playing-time reduction didn’t make sense. Perpetually enigmatic, Pickens belongs back in boom-bust WR3/flex territory. … Fields has completed 86% of his passes when targeting Freiermuth, yet Freiermuth has cleared 60 yards once in his last 19 games and remains a touchdown-reliant fringe TE1/2 option. … Jefferson and Austin both played more snaps and ran more routes than obviously-more-talented Pickens against Dallas last week. Yet Jefferson and Austin combined for 32 scoreless yards on seven Week 5 targets.

The Steelers’ D/ST deserves to be a popular play against a Raiders team playing musical QB chairs. Another game where Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell both see action should surprise no one. … Sans Zamir White (groin), Vegas unsuccessfully tried to feature Alexander Mattison in Week 5’s loss to Denver but wound up resorting to pass-game specialist Ameer Abdullah in second-half comeback mode. Abdullah played 22 of 22 fourth-quarter snaps. I want zero part of this backfield in fantasy. … Brock Bowers is the Raiders’ lone confident fantasy starter, presently ranked No. 1 among tight ends in targets (36), No. 1 in catches (28), and No. 1 in receiving yards (313). Barring injury, the two-time Mackey Award winner will finish as 2024’s fantasy TE1. … Possession type Jakobi Meyers will offer PPR-specific appeal in friendlier matchups; Steelers top CB Joey Porter Jr. is a physical mismatch for Meyers. … Tiny Raiders Nos. 2 and 3 WRs Tre Tucker (5-foot-9/182) and D.J. Turner (5-foot-9/206) are unattractive box-score bets in this projected low-scoring affair.

Score Prediction: Steelers 20, Raiders 10

Detroit @ Dallas

Team Totals: Lions 28, Cowboys 24.5

Tied for Week 6’s highest-totaled contest, Lions-Cowboys is a game to lean heavily into in fantasy-lineup decisions. Detroit returns from its Week 5 bye at full strength with All-Pro C Frank Ragnow (pec) back against a Dallas defense missing DE DeMarcus Lawrence (foot, I.R.), DE Marshawn Kneeland (meniscus surgery), and potentially DE Micah Parsons (high ankle sprain). Jared Goff’s lack of dual-threat value always curtails his box-score ceiling, but this game’s track-meet projection plus Detroit’s vast health advantage renders Goff a shoo-in fantasy starter. … Averaging 18 touches per game in the NFL’s seventh-highest-scoring offense, David Montgomery is an every-week RB2 starter with touchdown-driven RB1 upside. Montgomery ranks No. 4 in the league in carries inside opposing 5-yard lines (6) despite Detroit’s early-season bye. The Cowboys have allowed the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy running back points. … Jahmyr Gibbs drew zero passing-game targets in Weeks 3-4, necessitating correction from OC Ben Johnson during Detroit’s Week 5 bye. Dallas has conceded the NFL’s sixth-most receiving yards to enemy running backs (222). Either way, this is an eruption spot for Gibbs with fresh post-bye legs against a short-handed defense.

Goff’s Weeks 1-4 targets: Amon-Ra St. Brown 38; Jameson Williams 25; Sam LaPorta 14; Gibbs 13; Montgomery 9. … St. Brown feels like he’s off to a slow start but is on pace for 115 catches. He touched up Dallas for six grabs, 101 yards from scrimmage, and a TD when these clubs met last December. … Just a 53% player in 2023, Williams is now logging 85% of Detroit’s offensive snaps. Four games in, Williams leads the Lions in receiving yards (289) and ranks 12th in the league in Air Yards share (42%). Albeit with boom-bust caveats, he’s at very worst a sexy WR3 starter. … Neither LaPorta’s to-date usage nor this week’s matchup highlights him as a slump-busting candidate, but the Lions are coming off a bye, and this game set up as high-scoring. I’m strongly standing behind him as a fantasy TE1.

Fantasy’s QB2 (vs. BAL), QB12 (@ NYG), and QB13 (@ PIT) over the last three weeks, Dak Prescott has earned low-end QB1 playability in Sunday’s possible shootout with Detroit. The Lions lost critical front-seven defenders DE Marcus Davenport (elbow) and LB Derrick Barnes (knee) to I.R. before Week 5’s bye. … Rico Dowdle continued to separate from Ezekiel Elliott as Dallas’ primary running back in last Sunday night’s win over Pittsburgh by out-snapping Zeke 38 to 23 and out-touching him 22 to 6. Yet Detroit is holding enemy RBs to 3.6 yards per carry and a lowly 81.3 total yards per game. I’m teeing up Dowdle as a largely touchdown-reliant RB3/flex play. Elliott has reached full-on fantasy irrelevance.

Yet to clear 100 yards in a 2024 game, this is a breakout spot for CeeDee Lamb against a Lions defense that’s been clapped by fellow interior-oriented WRs Chris Godwin (7/117/1), Cooper Kupp (14/110/1), Tyler Johnson (5/79/0), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (8/51/0). … This game’s projected scoring environment plus Jalen Tolbert’s secure role as Dallas’ No. 2 wide receiver without Brandin Cooks (knee, I.R.) locks in Tolbert as an upside WR3/flex candidate. Tolbert has topped 80 yards in two of his last four games, while the Lions are allowing the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. … High-volume possession TE Jake Ferguson has at least six catches in three straight games, while the Cowboys rank No. 2 in the league in pass attempts (194). Those facts alone lock him in as a stable TE1.

Score Prediction: Lions 30, Cowboys 24

Atlanta @ Carolina

Team Totals: Falcons 26.5, Panthers 20.5

Rested following Week 5’s Thursday night win over Tampa Bay, the Falcons now square off with a Panthers team surrendering a league-high 33 points per game. Coming off easily his season-best performance, Kirk Cousins is set up for Week 6 box-score success after Carolina’s defense permitted the NFL’s third-most yards per pass attempt (8.1) and fourth-highest passer rating (111.5) in Weeks 1-5. … Decimated by offseason deletions and back-breaking in-season injuries, the Panthers have been decked by enemy running backs for an average of 155.8 total yards and 10 all-purpose touchdowns through five games. This is a screaming eruption spot for Bijan Robinson, while Falcons No. 2 back Tyler Allgeier warrants flex discussion in deeper leagues averaging 9.0 touches over his last four games.

Cousins’ Weeks 1-5 target distribution: Drake London 44; Darnell Mooney 40; Ray-Ray McCloud 31; Kyle Pitts 23; Bijan 19; Allgeier 6. … London missed some Week 5 playing time to be checked for a concussion but nevertheless emerged with year highs in targets (13), catches (12), and yards (154) against Tampa Bay. London is fantasy’s WR3 over the last month. … Mooney averaged over nine targets per game in Weeks 2-5 and was fantasy’s WR7 during that span. Showing obvious on-field rapport with Cousins, Mooney has earned WR3/flex valuation at Carolina. Mooney would’ve scored three TDs in last week’s victory if not for an end-zone drop. … McCloud is playing a ton of snaps but has yet to hit paydirt on the season and has never hit 70 receiving yards across 82 career games. … Carolina has coughed up the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends, while Atlanta’s massive team total theoretically elevates Pitts’ touchdown-scoring probability. He’s a surefire TE1 here.

Carolina’s quarterback situation is an obvious Week 6 avoid with Andy Dalton and Bryce Young both candidates to see playing time behind an O-Line missing C Austin Corbett (biceps, I.R.) and RT Taylor Moton (triceps). The Falcons’ D/ST is very playable. … Among the NFL’s most job-secure workhorses at this point, Chuba Hubbard is averaging 21.7 touches, 6.1 yards per carry, and 128.3 total yards with three touchdowns over Carolina’s last three games. He’s an every-week RB2 with RB1 upside regardless of opposition. … With Adam Thielen (hamstring) still on I.R., the Panthers appear likely to again trot out a three-receiver set of Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, and Jonathan Mingo versus Atlanta. A locked-in fantasy WR2, Johnson leads the NFL in end-zone targets (10). … Legette missed Week 5 snaps due to a shoulder injury but practiced in full this week. He tallied 76 yards and a touchdown on eight touches the game before. Legette is a dicey yet intriguing WR4/flex option. … Big slot WR Mingo remains scoreless in his 20-game career, having never cleared 70 receiving yards. … The Panthers have gotten nearly zero 2024 production from tight ends, and I don’t expect that to change if Tommy Tremble (concussion) sits.

Score Prediction: Falcons 27, Panthers 20

Bengals at Giants coming soon

Bills at Jets coming soon