S1/E60: Consequences of a Potential Withdrawal of U.S. Forces From Syria

Iran's Gambit

Officially, the United States has maintained a military presence in Syria since September 2014. As of December, approximately 900 U.S. troops reportedly remain in Syria - a number which according to the latest reports may be closer to 2000. This military posture could face a rapid reconfiguration with President-elect Donald J. Trump’s impending return to the White House, given his predisposition toward minimizing direct U.S. involvement in foreign military operations. While such a withdrawal is likely to erode U.S. leverage over the emerging governance structure in Syria, it may not significantly shift the strategic balance of power in Syria and the broader Middle East in a way that would generate a power vacuum conducive to exploitation by U.S. adversaries, including anti-American terrorist organizations or the Islamic Republic of Iran.