The Writ podcast

47:46

Canada’s political environment appears to be in flux, as the threats of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, the resignation of Justin Trudeau and the resulting Liberal leadership race have jostled what had been a steady trendline in the polls. What to make of the diverging numbers and how do parties have to adjust their strategy as everything shifts beneath their feet? Plus, we also discuss the writ drop in Ontario. Has Doug Ford made the right call in calling an early election, or has he taken a big risk? Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara , was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns. Dan is also hosting the Race to Replace limited podcast series on the Liberal leadership contest. Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger . He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada. James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research , which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election. In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts , you can also watch this episode on YouTube . This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe…

The Writ Podcast

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Ep. #137: Freeland is out. Is Trudeau next? 37:48

acum 11 weeks37:48

37:48

Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as finance minister on Monday has thrown Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government into chaos. What should we make of this unpredictable week in Canadian politics, and where do Trudeau and the Liberals go from here? There’s a lot to unpack, and this week I’m joined by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and The Globe and Mail ’s Stephanie Levitz to try to make some sense of it. In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts , you can also watch this episode on YouTube . Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on: * Apple Podcasts * Spotify * Overcast * Pocket Casts * Podcast Addict * YouTube Music * RSS Feed This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe…

The Writ Podcast

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The Numbers: Polls go from bad to sad for the Liberals 37:45

acum 13 weeks37:45

37:45

Four new polls put the Liberals and New Democrats within zero to two points of each other — and behind the Conservatives by margins of 19 to 23 points. We delve into the numbers and what they mean for each of the parties. Has Justin Trudeau’s promised GST holiday helped or hurt his chances? We also discuss provincial polls coming out of Ontario and Quebec, where two incumbent premiers (Doug Ford and François Legault) face two very different futures. Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning over to the dedicated podcast feed for The Numbers, as in the new year I intend to reserve this feed for episodes of The Writ Podcast. You can follow The Numbers on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , Pocket Casts , PodcastAddict or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes will still be sent out via email to subscribers of The Writ, but it will be embedded in the email, rather than sent to the podcast feed. Want even more of The Numbers ? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here . As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca , you can also watch this episode on YouTube . This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe…

The Writ Podcast

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The Numbers: A shock poll and a PC wave 43:18

acum 14 weeks43:18

43:18

A new poll, employing a new methodology, has the Conservatives at their highest and the Liberals at their lowest levels of support in years — maybe even a decade. What to make of it? On this week’s episode of The Numbers , we also break down Tim Houston’s PC landslide in the Nova Scotia election and take a look at some recent polls out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island. Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning over to the dedicated podcast feed for The Numbers, as in the new year I intend to reserve this feed for episodes of The Writ Podcast. You can follow The Numbers on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , Pocket Casts , PodcastAddict or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes will still be sent out via email to subscribers of The Writ, but it will be embedded in the email, rather than sent to the podcast feed. Want even more of The Numbers ? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here . As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca , you can also watch this episode on YouTube . This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe…

The Writ Podcast

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The Numbers: Liberals, NDP tied in new poll — again 43:33

acum 15 weeks43:33

43:33

A new poll by Abacus Data puts the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck in national voting intentions, well behind the Conservatives. But this isn’t the first time it’s happened. Is it a blip or another worrying sign for Justin Trudeau? On this episode of The Numbers , we take a look at the federal polling landscape. We then discuss some new numbers out of Quebec before taking a deep-dive into the Nova Scotia provincial election. Could anything put a big win by Tim Houston’s PCs in doubt, and who has the inside track on forming the official opposition? Want even more of The Numbers ? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here . As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca , you can also watch this episode on YouTube . This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe…

The Writ Podcast

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The Numbers: Yet another tough byelection test for Trudeau 51:51

acum 16 weeks51:51

51:51

The Liberals face a tough test — maybe their toughest test yet — in an upcoming byelection in the B.C. Lower Mainland. Will Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose their third contest in a row? We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. Then, we discuss new provincial polling numbers ahead of Nova Scotia’s election and Ontario’s apparently upcoming election. Finally, we chat about new polling from Quebec that continues to show trouble for Premier François Legault. Want even more of The Numbers ? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here . As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca , you can also watch this episode on YouTube . This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe…

The Writ Podcast

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The Numbers: Did the U.S. polls miss the mark? 42:20

acum 17 weeks42:20

42:20

Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump’s support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the polls performed south of the border — and what the results could mean for politics on this side of it. We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the Nova Scotia provincial election campaign. Then, we close with a U.S.-themed Quiz! Want even more of The Numbers ? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here . As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca , you can also watch this episode on YouTube . This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe…

The Writ Podcast

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Ep. #136: Three elections, many lessons 39:03

acum 18 weeks39:03

39:03

Incumbents in all three provinces that voted in October took their licks, but David Eby in British Columbia and Scott Moe in Saskatchewan managed to secure re-election. That wasn’t the case for Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick, who lost not only the premier’s chair but his own seat. What happened in these three provincial campaigns — and what lessons might be drawn out of them as Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh prepare for the upcoming federal election? The Pollster Panel is back on The Writ Podcast to provide their perspectives. Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara , was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns. Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger . He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada. James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research , which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election. THE NUMBERS: The podcast is now available for everyone every week, so if you missed this week’s episode, in which we dive into the Saskatchewan election results as well as the latest federal polls, you can watch it on YouTube here or find it in your favourite podcasting app. If you’d like to become a member of the Patreon and listen to the weekly mailbag episode, as well as a special episode every month, you can join the Patreon here . In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts , you can also watch this episode on YouTube . This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe…

The Writ Podcast

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The Numbers: What just happened? 45:48

acum 19 weeks45:48

45:48

This week on The Numbers , we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What’s next for the B.C. Conservatives, what do we make of the Liberals’ shellacking of the PCs out east and how did the polls do? We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. There’s also a new poll giving the Saskatchewan NDP the lead ahead of Monday’s vote, and another poll showing Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs on cruise control. Does it mean an early election? Note to listeners: Public episodes of The Numbers will now be published every week! The Writ Podcast isn’t going away, but its publishing schedule will be irregular. You can expect one or two new episodes of The Writ Podcast every month, featuring some of my regular panelists and focusing on special events, like elections and leadership contests. When there isn’t a new episode of The Writ Podcast , you’ll get the latest episode of The Numbers right here in your feed and/or inbox. Want even more of The Numbers ? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here . As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca , you can also watch this episode on YouTube . This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe…

The Writ Podcast

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The Numbers: Days of Decision in BC, NB — and for Justin Trudeau 54:53

acum 20 weeks54:53

54:53

Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day. We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questions from the listener mailbag about the machinations in Ottawa. Apologies for the poor audio from me during the first half of this episode. To join the Discord page for The Numbers , get extended mailbag segments and bonus episodes, you can become a member of our Patreon site here . As suggested in the podcast, if you’d like to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app, follow the instructions after clicking on this link . A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week! Election livestreams on Saturday and Monday can be found here . As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca , you can also watch this episode on YouTube . This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe…

The Writ Podcast

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Ep. #135: B.C., New Brunswick and Saskatchewan election updates 45:29

acum 21 weeks45:29

45:29

There are less than two weeks to go in the B.C. and New Brunswick provincial elections, while Saskatchewan’s campaign officially got underway. We’ll know who has won these three contests by the end of the month, but for now all three might be too close to call. Back to provide some updates from the campaign trails on this episode of The Writ Podcast (and a day early!) are Richard Zussman , Global News legislative reporter in B.C., Jacques Poitras , the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick, and Adam Hunter , the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Saskatchewan. THE NUMBERS: This week’s members-only episode of The Numbers will be available later on Thursday here . We’ll delve more deeply into some of the polling numbers coming out of British Columbia, along with all the latest in provincial and federal politics from across the country. In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts , you can also watch this episode on YouTube . This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe…

The Writ Podcast

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The Numbers: Are the Liberals now in third place? 39:53

acum 22 weeks39:53

39:53

This week on The Numbers , we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault. In the mailbag, we answer questions about the potential for prorogation and just how low the Liberals' floor could go. Finally, the tables are turned for a Mini Quiz for Philippe. To join the Discord page for The Numbers , get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here . A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week! As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca , you can also watch this episode on YouTube . You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe…

The Writ Podcast

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Ep. #134: B.C. and New Brunswick campaign update 30:56

acum 23 weeks30:56

30:56

The writs dropped last week in both British Columbia and New Brunswick as the dates for the next provincial elections were officially set for October 19 in B.C. and October 21 in New Brunswick. The polls suggest that both campaigns are too close to call, which means the next three weeks could prove decisive. To update us on the latest developments in these two elections, I’m joined this week on The Writ Podcast by Richard Zussman , legislative reporter for Global News in B.C., and Jacques Poitras , the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick. THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, which is available for Patreon members here , we break down some of the latest federal polls and what they might mean for election timing. Then, we delve into the three provincial campaigns in British Columbia, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan, where polls raise more questions than they do provide answers about who is going to win. We also look at the Ontario byelection results in Bay of Quinte. In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts , you can also watch this episode on YouTube . This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe…

The Writ Podcast

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The Numbers: After another defeat, where do the Liberals go from here? 56:51

acum 24 weeks56:51

56:51

This week on The Numbers , we parse through the results of Monday's byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. Is it End Times for the Liberals? We also grade ourselves on our Byelection Draft and Over/Under choices. Plus, a confidence vote is on the docket next week. What do we make of the Bloc's early positioning — and what about Pablo Rodriguez's decision to make the jump to provincial politics? We also take a look at some new polls out of British Columbia and Thursday’s writ drop in New Brunswick. To join the Discord page for The Numbers , get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here . A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week! As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca , you can also watch this episode on YouTube . You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe…

The Writ Podcast

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Ep. #133: Byelections for now, a general election soon? 41:40

acum 25 weeks41:40