Predictions for the Union Budget

Top of the Morning

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Wednesday, July 17, 2024. My name is Nelson John. Let's get started:

The Indian market's benchmark indices —Nifty and Sensex—inched up during Tuesday's trading. Sensex was up by 0.06 percent, while Nifty increased by 0.11 percent.

Today, we're publishing a collection of pre-budget stories, ahead of the Union Budget set to be presented next week. I'd recommend you pick up a physical copy of Mint today to read this special edition.

The lead story of our special pre-budget collection is penned by Montek Singh Ahluwalia, former deputy chairman of the Planning Commission. He predicts that all roads lead to the government's massive gamut of promises to be completed by 2047. First and foremost, NDA's third successive government is likely to want to boost GDP growth even further. A fiscal deficit of 5.1 percent is achievable, Ahluwalia writes. Lastly, an overhaul of the current Goods and Services tax should also take place to aid India's economic progress. Alhuwalia lists some other challenges the government would do well to achieve a superpower status in the next two decades.

India's insurance companies, barring LIC, aren't exactly in the most strong positions. Three state-owned insurance companies, namely National Insurance, Oriental Insurance, and United India Insurance, need more money in case they need to settle a high amount of claims together. Subhash Narayan and Rhik Kundu report that the upcoming Union Budget might allocate anywhere between 4,000 to 5,000 crore rupees as a shot in the arm to these insurance companies. Subhash and Rhik report that the solvency numbers of these three insurers are much worse than they should be, and a one-time infusion of funds could help with either a public listing or privatisation.

Notice that groceries have gotten expensive again? Official data shows that food inflation has shot up to 9.4 percent year-on-year, the highest in six months. Vegetables are dearer by 29 percent, pulses by 16 percent, and cereals by 8.8 percent. Sayantan Bera explains these numbers, and the reasons why your shopping carts have gotten more expensive yet again.

Byju's has been dealing with a lot of financial struggles of late. Yesterday, the national company law tribunal, or N-C-L-T, admitted an insolvency petition. Interestingly, the petition was made by the Board of Control for Cricket in India — that's right, the management of the Indian cricket team. BCCI is suing Byju's for non-payment of dues. But the latest in this saga has dire consequences for Byju Raveendran and his team. They lose control of the startup, which will now be controlled by a resolution professional as appointed by the NCLT. Mansi Verma explains what this decision means for Byju's, its investors, and all those it has defaulted against.

Financial influencers, or finfluencers, generally dole out advice to anyone willing to pay for their services. However, most of these finfluencers are unregulated — according to the Securities and Exchange Board of India, they aren't exactly qualified to advise you on your investments. But what about those who are qualified? Sashind Ningthoukhongjam writes about registered mutual fund distributors who are also doubling up as finfluencers. Sebi feels that registered entities should distance themselves from unregistered creators offering tall claims. Sashind explores this grey area by speaking to some industry experts on the matter.

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Show notes:

How to pack the journey for 2047

Mint Explainer: NCLT admits insolvency plea against Byju’s. Here’s what it means

Fund infusion announcement for public sector general insurers likely in Budget

Hidden in plain sight: New food inflation data

Sebi is regulating influencers. What if they’re also MFDs?